North American mid-week Market update – Weaker numbers in the US & better ones in Canada

[Ben Graham]

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

The longest US government shutdown in history (43rd day) is still ongoing, but a resolution to finally end it appears imminent, with the House vote scheduled for tonight at 7 p.m.

White House economic advisor Hassett also mentioned earlier this week that the shutdown will undoubtedly have a quantifiable negative impact on this quarter's GDP.

This impact on the US economy may have just been felt through a round of worrying private data this past week.

The Challenger Layoffs report indicated that the number of announced job cuts in October was the highest monthly total since October 2003.

zoom_out_map

October 2025 Announced Jobs Cuts – Source: Challenger Report –Published in November 2025

This was corroborated by yesterday's ADP weekly report (a new series) which showed an average drop of 11K jobs in the private sector over the past four weeks, contradicting their own positive monthly report released on November 5th.

On the other hand, the northern neighbor, Canada, has been persistently surprising to the upside again.

zoom_out_map

Canadian Employment Change in the past 12 months – Source: Trading Economics

This resilience is seen across the board: two consecutive months of surprise job gains (with October adding 67,000 jobs against an expected loss), continued consumer resilience in spending, and this morning's building permits beat of 4.5% versus a 1% expectation.

The back-to-back strong labor reports have helped to strengthen the CAD, but still expect some caution at the December meeting where only 13% chance of a cut is priced.

North America is facing some of the most complex and contradictory economic dynamics throughout 2025, and this complexity will only continue going forward, particularly with the White House saying that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might not release the October numbers even after the government reopens.

A bad development for the times to come – Let's see how this unfolds when the Government officially reopens.

In any case, let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USD/CAD and DXY charts.

North-American Indices Performance

zoom_out_map

North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – November 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Stellar recovery from the Dow Jones and the TSX after the end of last week's sharp selloffs.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 have struggled in this ongoing rotation.

Dollar Index 8H Chart

zoom_out_map

Dollar Index 8H Chart, November 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Despite retracing 0.90% since last Wednesday, the Dollar Index is holding its upwards channel formed throughout October.

The 8H MA 50 is acting as immediate support at the lower bound, hence reactions could be expected here.

A break lower however may point at further rangebound action in the Greenback as the Market still awaits BLS data.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 99.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone
• 100.376 November highs
• Top of channel round 100.650

Support Levels

• 8H MA 50 acting as immediate support 99.420
• Higher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00
• Mini-support 98.50
• Main support 98.00

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

zoom_out_map

USD vs other Majors since last Monday, November 12, 2025 - Source: TradingView

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

zoom_out_map

CAD vs other Majors, November 12, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

zoom_out_map

USD/CAD daily Chart, November 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

USD/CAD has started to post quite a reversal from its 1.4143 extremes attained last week.

The bearish divergence with which it went down may confirm that the intermediate top might be one for the longer run, nonetheless bears will have to push the pair below 1.40 on a weekly close to confirm.

RSI momentum is also starting to turn right below the neutral line.

Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:

Resistance Levels

• Liberation Day level around 1.4050
• Cycle highs 1.4143
• Current Resistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145
• Key resistance 1.4250

Support Levels

• 1.40 Major pivot (imminent support, testing)
• Major Daily Pivot 1.39 (+/- 200 pips)
• 1.38 Major support +/- 150 pips
• August range support 1.3750
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

zoom_out_map

US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar

Expect somewhat of a release drought towards the end of the week, but traders can still track what the FED has to say, particularly as the December cut appears more "live" when looking at the recent private data.

What will be really interesting however will be to see how the BLS plans their releases as the Government reopens (hopefully) tonight.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.