Bitcoin “Arguably Undervalued,” Says Analytics Firm: Here’s Why

Ben Graham · Novembro 13

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has explained how Bitcoin could currently be undervalued based on its 4-year correlation to Gold and S&P 500.

Bitcoin Has Underperformed Against Gold & S&P 500 Recently

In a new post on X, Santiment has discussed about BTC’s recent trend relative to Gold and S&P 500. Historically, the cryptocurrency has shown some degree of correlation to these assets, but the pattern has shifted lately.

Any two given assets are said to be “correlated” when one of them reacts to movements in the other by showing volatility of its own. As the chart shared by Santiment shows, Bitcoin has diverged from the traditional assets during the last few months.

From the graph, it’s visible that Bitcoin has overall gone down 15% since August 11th. In the same window, the S&P 500 and Gold are up 7% and 21%, respectively. Gold has been the clear winner, but the S&P 500 has also at least managed a profit.

The same is clearly not true for the number one cryptocurrency, which has gone the opposite way. The different trajectories of the assets would imply that they are no longer correlated or only have a negative correlation.

Based on the fact that Bitcoin has shown tight correlation to the two over the last four years, however, the analytics firm has said, “BTC is arguably being undervalued.” It now remains to be seen whether the cryptocurrency’s price will eventually close the gap to the others.

In some other news, BTC is trading between two key on-chain price levels right now, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in an X post.

The levels in question are part of the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, which maps out various Bitcoin price levels according to the percentage of the supply that will be in profit if BTC were to trade at them.

Bitcoin broke above the 0.95 quantile during its rally to the new all-time high (ATH), meaning more than 95% of the supply entered into a state of unrealized gain. With the drawdown that the coin has faced since then, its price has slipped not just under this level, but also the 0.85 quantile, corresponding to supply profitability of 85%.

This level, currently situated at $108,500, could act as a barrier preventing upward breaks. In the down direction, the 0.75 quantile is present as a cushion around $100,600. “These levels have historically acted as support and resistance, with a break of either likely to define the next directional trend,” explained Glassnode.