Why is Crypto Down? When Will Crypto Recover?

[Ben Graham]

November 14, 2025 – Oh boy, what is going on? Let’s ask the big question: why is crypto down? The market has taken a sharp hit, with total capitalization dropping 5.6% to $3.38 trillion in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin BTC $96,924.81 6.04% Bitcoin BTC Price $96,924.81 6.04% /24h Volume in 24h $105.12B Price 7d Learn more , the leading asset, fell below the key $100,000 level, hitting a low of $95,900: the weakest since May.

Ethereum ETH $3,244.76 9.47% Ethereum ETH Price $3,244.76 9.47% /24h Volume in 24h $45.55B Price 7d Learn more dropped more than 6% to $3,208, while altcoins like Solana SOL $143.62 8.92% Solana SOL Price $143.62 8.92% /24h Volume in 24h $13.23B Price 7d Learn more and meme tokens lost 5-7%.

More than $1.1 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, intensifying the decline across DeFi, NFTs, and Layer-1 tokens.

Traders are on edge, but is this the end of the bull run or just a necessary correction?

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The Perfect Storm: Why Crypto is Down

The sell-off stems from a mix of global economic pressures, technical breakdowns, and widespread fear. Risk appetite has vanished from broader markets. The Nasdaq-100 fell 2.05%, the S&P 500 declined 1.66%, and even gold showed weakness as recession worries grow. A temporary U.S. government shutdown resolution sparked short-lived optimism, but profit-taking quickly followed.

Delayed October CPI data and weak job reports (ADP showed -11,250 jobs per week) have cut the chances of a December Fed rate cut to below 50%, dampening hopes for easier money.

Excess leverage made things worse. Around $960 million in positions were liquidated, including $827 million in BTC long contracts, triggering a chain reaction of forced selling. Over $1.38b in liquidation in the last 24 hours.

(Source: Coinglass)

Long-term holders sold 815,000 BTC over the past month, increasing supply pressure while ETF inflows slowed—$795.8 million left BTC funds in just five days. Rising U.S.-China trade tensions and stress in the AI sector (SoftBank sold its Nvidia stake) hurt crypto-related stocks, with miners like CleanSpark down 8% and Hut 8 off 9%.

On-chain data shows clear signs of surrender: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to “Extreme Fear” at 15, the lowest since February. Retail mood has soured, and MVRV ratios point to overvaluation.

The sentiment on CT (crypto Twitter) can be summarised as: hot inflation, Fed uncertainty, and peak leverage manipulation.

November’s historical average gain of 42% now seems unrealistic, distorted by outliers like 2013’s 449% surge, while the current month is down 15%.

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BTC Price Action: From Euphoria to Exhaustion

Bitcoin’s chart reflects fatigue. After reaching $126,296 in October, BTC formed lower highs and broke supports at $102,800 and $100,000. The daily trend has flipped, with two straight lower lows confirming bearish control. RSI sits at 40.07, neutral but with fading volume that limits quick recovery hopes.

Still, some metrics offer hope. Exchange outflows reached record levels, and institutions have accumulated 4 million BTC this year—over 20% of total supply.

Whales like “66kETHBorrow” bought $1.34 billion worth of ETH, betting on a rebound. Trendline models suggest a worst-case drop to $55,000, but $80,000-$95,000 is more likely, keeping the drawdown at 37-56%—less severe than past bear markets.

Will we see something like this?

(Source: Coingecko)

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When Will Crypto Recover? Bullish Catalysts on the Horizon

The bottom may be close. Analysts see support between $90,000 and $98,000, with a possible bounce to $108,000-$114,500 by month-end if ETF flows return and macro conditions stabilize. The Fed ends quantitative tightening on December 1, which could release $50 billion in liquidity—similar to China’s recent move. New rules like the GENIUS Act may encourage yield-bearing assets, drawing in institutions that currently hold just $300-$400 billion of crypto’s $3.55 trillion market cap.

Looking ahead, 2025 forecasts remain strong: $145,000-$200,000 by Q4, according to Bitfinex and H.C. Wainwright, driven by halving cycles that peak 12-18 months after April 2024.

This dip is a “healthy reset” after 2025’s institutional rush, bulls say. Long-term holders, keep stacking. The bull market isn’t over, it’s pausing. Recovery could start in December, setting the stage for $130,000+ BTC in 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Over $1.1B in liquidations, weak macro data, and reduced Fed rate-cut expectations triggered the sharp market sell-off.
• Bitcoin’s break below $100K and extreme fear readings show sentiment collapsing, though some on-chain metrics hint at potential accumulation

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