Euro Currency: Week Preview

[Ben Graham]

The upcoming week promises to be relatively dull. Despite the end of the "shutdown" in the U.S., there hasn't been an influx of economic data into the market, and all three meetings of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England have taken place fairly recently. Consequently, only secondary information may come to the market. It is worth noting that in recent months, market activity has been low, and without strong news, it is unlikely to increase significantly. Therefore, the euro and the pound can expect to continue their upward movement, as suggested by wave analysis. However, expecting a rapid increase in these instruments is not realistic.

In the Eurozone, the only notable events include the inflation report for October in its final evaluation, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, and the preliminary business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors in Germany and the EU for November. The first two events are "important" only on paper. No one expects any changes in monetary policy views from the ECB president at this time. The ECB has been striving to bring inflation back to 2% and has achieved it. Currently, neither tightening nor easing of policy is required.

The final inflation evaluation generally does not interest market participants, as it is often a mere formality. This leaves only the business activity indices for November, which will be released on Friday. Until Friday, there will be virtually complete calm. In the U.S., lively discussion topics have decreased since the "shutdown" ended, but at the same time, there is still no economic data on the labor market and unemployment. I believe that during the next week, market activity and the amplitude of movements will remain low.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to develop a bullish segment of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors that may lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar in the future. The targets for the current segment of the trend could reach the 25 figure. Currently, we are in the construction of corrective wave 4, which is taking a very complex and extended form. Its last internal structure— a-b-c-d-e is presumed to be complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the instrument to rise with targets around annual highs or near them.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for GBP/USD has changed. We continue to deal with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in 4 is presumed to be complete. If this is indeed the case, I anticipate that the main wave structure will resume its build-up, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. The key is that the news background needs to be at least a little better than it was this week.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade, as they often lead to changes.
2. If there's uncertainty in the market, it's better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com