EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

On Monday, for the second consecutive day, the EUR/USD pair is trading in the red amid decreasing expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Bears are awaiting a sustained breakout and consolidation below the round 1.1600 level before preparing for more significant losses.

From a technical standpoint, last week's breakdown near the confluence of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day simple moving average around 1.1666, followed by subsequent declines, favors the EUR/USD bears. However, neutral oscillators on the daily chart call for caution, as there is a possibility that the European Central Bank will keep the deposit rate at its current level until the end of next year, which supports euro bulls.

Therefore, further downside will likely attract buyers, finding strong support in the 1.1575–1.1570 level. A decisive break below this area, however, will trigger technical selling, making the EUR/USD pair vulnerable to further declines toward the psychological 1.1500 level. Ultimately, spot prices may drop to the 1.1470–1.1465 level—November's lows, last seen on August 1.

On the other hand, the confluence of the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages around 1.1666 continues to act as a strong immediate barrier. A move above this level would allow EUR/USD to return to the round 1.1700 level. Buying beyond 1.1730 would set the stage for further gains toward 1.1760, enabling the pair to reach the 1.1800 round level on the way to the next resistance in the 1.1815–1.1820 level.

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