XAU/USD: Price Analysis, Forecast. The Decline of Gold is Limited.

Ben Graham · Novembro 17

Gold has now fallen below Friday's low, demonstrating its weakness. An increasing number of Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards caution, avoiding further steps to ease monetary policy. In particular, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasized on Friday that inflation remains excessively high and that there is no reason for complacency regarding inflation forecasts and expectations.

Jeffrey Schmid stated that the current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, which aligns with its essence, and should account for demand dynamics. By the end of last week, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December had fallen below 50%, which also contributed to the pressure on the yellow metal.

On Monday, at the start of the week, the U.S. dollar strengthened as investors awaited the release of delayed U.S. macroeconomic indicators that may clarify the Fed's plans for interest rates. This also creates pressure on gold prices.

The closely monitored Non-Farm Payrolls report for October will be released on Thursday, following the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. This event will undoubtedly play a crucial role in the short-term price dynamics of the dollar, providing significant momentum for the precious metal.

Investors seem confident that U.S. economic indicators will show some weakness and slowing growth following the prolonged government shutdown, which could prompt the Fed to ease further. This, along with a less aggressive risk appetite, helps to contain the decline in precious metal prices.

From a technical perspective, weakness below the round $4,000 level will push prices toward the October low at $3,886, with a stop at the $3,930 support level. However, a return of prices above the level of $4,062 would give gold a chance to break through the round level of $4,100, and a strengthening above this level would be a new trigger for bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have not yet moved into negative territory, leaving hope for bulls to continue their fight.

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