EUR/USD Forecast on November 18, 2025

[Ben Graham]

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline after rebounding from the 1.1645–1.1656 resistance zone on Friday. The 61.8% corrective level at 1.1594 was reached. A rebound from this level would work in favor of the European currency, and I believe the probability of this is quite high. In this case, the pair will return to the 1.1645–1.1656 level. A consolidation below 1.1594 would allow us to expect a continuation of the decline toward the next 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1517.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The new upward wave has not yet broken the peak of the previous wave, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains bearish at this time. Bullish traders have begun to advance, but they must not lose momentum if they hope to restore the bullish trend. For the bearish trend to be considered complete, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656 or form two consecutive bullish waves.

There was no news background on Monday, but recently the market has received plenty of comments from FOMC members indicating that monetary policy parameters are unlikely to change in December. I can immediately say that the market is reacting very weakly to any news right now, and many reports are simply being ignored. I do not associate yesterday's strengthening of the U.S. dollar with rising hawkish expectations ahead of the next Fed meeting. Nevertheless, the FOMC may pause, as the situation with labor market and unemployment data remains highly uncertain. While September reports may be released this week (on Thursday), the October reports might not be released at all. Certainly, September data also matter, but the Fed wants to understand what the labor market looks like after monetary easing resumes. The Fed first cut rates in September, so data for October and November are more important. Thus, before December I would not make predictions about the Fed meeting.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 23.6% corrective level at 1.1649, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a new decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. A consolidation above the 1.1649–1.1680 resistance zone would work in favor of the euro and a continuation of growth toward the next corrective level at 1.1829. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 shorts. No new COT reports have been released for more than a month. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and is strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, and short positions—138,000. The gap is effectively twofold. Additionally, note the number of green cells in the table above: they indicate strong position-building in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar falls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may create numerous long-term structural problems for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators are showing declines.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On November 18, the economic calendar again contains no noteworthy entries. The news background will not influence market sentiment on Tuesday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Sales of the pair were possible after the rebound from the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1594. The target has been reached. New sales are possible if the pair closes below 1.1594, with a target of 1.1517. Long positions may be considered on a rebound from 1.1594 on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.1645–1.1656 level.

The Fibonacci grids are built using 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

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