Gold (XAU/USD) Price Technical Outlook: $4000/oz Holds Firm as FOMC Minutes and Labor Data Releases Lie Ahead

[Ben Graham]

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Gold prices have had a topsy turvy start to the week but the $4000/oz handle has held firm. Bulls have returned and price has bounced off the confluence area at $4000 but needs acceptance above the $4100/oz handle for the rally to gather steam.

The question on the minds of market participants is whether or not Gold bulls will remain in control after the Fed minutes release and Labor data on Thursday?

Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD)

Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is interesting.

Having bounced off the ascending trendline which lined up with the $4000/oz handle, Gold broke above the 100-day MA and is now testing the descending trendline drawn from the November 13 high around $4245/oz.

A break of the descending trendline and the 50-day MA around the $4096/oz handle could open up a potential rally toward the previous descending trendline touch at $4212/oz.

Of course there is a resistance area around the $4150/oz handle which could prove to be a stumbling block but bulls may be emboldened or if not will be eyeing US labor data and the Fed minutes as a potential catalyst.

To keep the bullish momentum going, the 100-day MA at 4041 is now a crucial near-term support area. If this area holds, it should bode well for bullish momentum.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, November 18, 2025

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Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Market Dynamics and Data Releases

The price of Gold (XAU/USD) has appeared relatively unaffected by the moves in the US Dollar Index of late. However, this does not mean that correlation is no longer something to keep an eye on.

This week's Fed minutes and Labor data releases will play a major role in rate cut expectations which will impact market sentiment and the US Dollar Index. This in turn will play a major role in the movement of Gold prices moving forward.

The aggressive repricing of rate cut probabilities for the Feds December meeting (93.7% probability a month ago vs 51.1% probability at present) has kept Gold gains in check.

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Source: CME FedWatch Tool

However, a weak print on the labor data front could see rate cut expectations spike and thus propel Gold higher once more.

Markets already know broadly what to expect from the Fed minutes release as it was Fed Chair Powell's tone and the 10-2 vote split at the Fed's October meeting that kickstarted the hawkish repricing of rate cut expectations.

Thus the event could be sidelined by market participants in favor of Thursday's labor data release.

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Be nimble and trade safe.

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