NFP Preview: BLS Announces No October Report, November Report Delayed to After Fed Meeting. Rate Cut Bets Tumble Further, Implications for the DXY

[Ben Graham]

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Markets are bracing for the release of September Jobs data from the US now that the US Government shutdown has come to an end. The report comes at a time when US rate cut expectations have fallen significantly since the Fed's October meeting thanks in part to a hawkish Jerome Powell and the lack of official Government data.

Expectations for a rate cut have declined from around 90% ahead of the Fed's October meeting to around 49% at the time of writing, which makes tomorrow's jobs report even more significant. Market participants have been tracking private data releases such as the ADP number which has shown persistent labor market weakness and yet rate cut expectations have continued to fall.

It was confirmed today that the October Jobs report will not be released, while the November report will only be released on December 16, 2025 which is after the December Fed meeting.

This means the Fed will have tomorrow's data only to peruse ahead of the Fed Meeting next month. Rate cut bets have fallen another 13% after the announcement, now down to 36%.

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Source: CME FedWatch Tool

NFP Preview: What to Expect

The September monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is finally coming out after the government shutdown. Since the October report might not be released, this September data is a key, possibly one of the last, major pieces of information about the job market before the Federal Reserve (FOMC) meets in December.

Economists and traders generally expect the report to show that the US added about 50,000 new jobs in September, that the average worker's pay increased by 0.3% compared to the month before (or 3.7% year-over-year), and that the main unemployment rate (U3) stayed the same at 4.3%.

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The Federal Reserve is already in a difficult position heading into tomorrow's data release and market participants will be hoping for more clarity. This would require either a significant beat of expectations which may strengthen the case for no rate cut or a significant miss of expectations which could lead to an increase in rate cut expectations.

This would undoubtedly be the best case scenario as a reading in line with consensus could leave market participants with more questions than answers.

Potential implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY)

The market's reaction to the NFP report will not be uniform, but rather dependent on the deviation from consensus forecasts. These are the potential reactions we could see depending on how the data comes out and is received.

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Source: Table Created by Zain Vawda

The US Dollar is at an interesting inflection point with tomorrow's data pivotal to the greenbacks immediate move.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical inflection point having just risen back above the crucial 100.00 level and the 200-day MA.

This is the third time the index has risen above the 100.00 mark for the third time since the end of July. However, the index has failed to gain acceptance above this level with each foray above the level having been met by significant selling pressure.

Immediate resistance rests at 100.61 before the 102.00 handle comes into focus.

Acceptance above the 100.00 mark is needed if the DXY is to continue its advance. The overall trend remains bullish with a daily candle close below 99.20 invalidating the bullish narrative.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, November 19, 2025

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Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

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