XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, gold is attempting to rise for the third consecutive day as the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on October 28–29, published on Wednesday, showed that most participants supported lowering the target range for the federal funds rate, although some remained opposed. The document also noted that further rate cuts could lead to entrenched inflation.

This "hawkish" tone prompted investors to further reduce their expectations for a December rate cut, pushing the U.S. dollar to its highest level since late May and putting pressure on gold. Also this week, U.S. President Donald Trump approved a 28-point peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. According to preliminary information, the plan includes territorial concessions by Ukraine and a significant reduction of its military capabilities. Reports also indicate that a U.S. delegation made a rare wartime visit to Kyiv to hold talks with the Ukrainian leadership in an effort to restart long-stalled peace negotiations with Russia. All of this creates additional risks for the safe-haven precious-metal market and calls for caution among traders with a bullish outlook.

In addition, optimistic market sentiment is also seen as another factor undermining gold's position as a safe-haven asset. However, concerns about a weakening U.S. economy amid the longest government shutdown in American history are limiting deeper losses for the yellow metal.

From a technical standpoint, gold has found support at the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart. Any decline will encounter support at the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently near $4020, followed by the weekly low around $4000.

On the other hand, resistance lies at the 50-SMA near $4110. A rise in prices above this level may be viewed as a new bullish catalyst, opening the way toward the next resistance level at $4150–4155, with further upside toward the round level of $4200.

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