XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, gold is trading within its familiar four-day range, finding support at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. From a technical standpoint, any decline is likely to find solid support near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently lies around $4020. Next comes the weekly low, slightly below the psychological level of $4000; a break beneath this level would accelerate the decline toward support at $3930. The downward trajectory may continue toward a test of the late-October low near $3886.

On the other hand, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, located around $4110, is the nearest resistance. A modest rise above this level would be perceived as a new bullish catalyst, lifting the price of the yellow metal to the next resistance zone around $4150–4145. Further growth would pave the way toward the next psychological level at $4200.It is also worth noting that oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, confirming that gold is not ready to surrender.

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