The Pound Fell Following a Drop in UK Retail Sales

[Ben Graham]

The British pound reacted with a sharp decline to news that UK retail sales in October fell much more than expected.

The report from the Office for National Statistics stated that the volume of goods sold online and in stores in the UK fell by 1.1% month-on-month after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in September. This figure ended a five-month streak of consecutive growth and was significantly worse than economists' expected decline of 0.2%.

Economists attribute the drop in retail sales to several factors. First, inflation continues to put pressure on consumer spending. Second, interest rates remain high, increasing the cost of borrowing. Third, economic uncertainty caused by a budget shortfall of more than £30 billion is forcing consumers to be more cautious with their spending.

Ahead of Christmas, retailers will be hoping for an increase in sales. However, the economic outlook remains uncertain, and there is no guarantee that consumers will spend at previous levels. Many analysts forecast that UK retail sales will remain weak in the coming months.

The report supports the view that the economy is in a precarious position ahead of the budget that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will present next week. After considering an income tax increase—which would break earlier commitments—the Chancellor intends instead to raise several other levies to fill the multibillion-pound hole in public finances.

"Monthly sales fell in October for the first time since May," said ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner. "Supermarkets, clothing stores, and online retailers all saw a decline in sales, with some retailers suggesting that consumers are delaying purchases until the November sales expected around Black Friday."

As noted above, the British pound reacted to all of this with a decline.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3100. Only then will it be possible to aim for 1.3130, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3160 level. In the event of a decline in the pair, the bears will attempt to regain control of 1.3065. If they manage to do so, a breakout of that range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD to the 1.3040 low, with prospects of reaching 1.3015.

As for the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to reclaim the 1.1541 level. Only then will it be possible to aim for a test of 1.1565. From there, the price could climb to 1.1585, but doing so without support from major market participants will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1610 high. In the event of a decline in the instrument, I expect major buyers to become active only around 1.1515. If no one shows up there, it would be preferable to wait for a renewal of the 1.1490 low or to open long positions from 1.1470.

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