EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, after five consecutive days of decline, the EUR/USD pair is stabilizing near the 1.1540 level amid a slight weakening of the U.S. dollar. The employment data released for September strengthens expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is now pricing in a 36% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate. This is slightly higher than the 30% probability priced in by the markets yesterday.

In the U.S., NFP — the number of nonfarm payroll jobs created in September — increased by 119,000 compared with the revised August figure of +22,000 and the previously projected growth of 50,000. This result exceeded analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August. Average hourly earnings remained at 3.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 3.7%.

The euro is holding its ground amid cautious views regarding the near-term outlook for the European Central Bank's monetary policy. It is assumed that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026. Meanwhile, inflation remains near the 2% target, the economy shows stable growth, and unemployment remains at a record low level.

On Thursday, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Gabriel Makhlouf stated that the current monetary stance appears justified, and significant changes are unlikely unless substantial developments occur.

From a technical perspective, this week's decline below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart favors the bears. Oscillators on both the 4-hour and daily charts are in negative territory, confirming the weakness of the bulls. Nevertheless, if prices manage to overcome the 1.1540 level and then the 100-period SMA, the bulls may regain strength.

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