EUR/USD technical analysis: Spotting Mean Reversion in the 2,000 pip Range

[Ben Graham]

After rebounding well through the past week, what was initially thought to be a broader trading range is actively contracting into a tight consolidation pattern.

Currently stuck between 1.15 and 1.17 (+/- 150 pips), the most popular FX pair hasn't been able to find a concrete direction since reaching its peak back in July.

The US Dollar made its point again earlier, fueled by the Fed's hawkish repricing as fears of a December "non-cut" created sudden demand for the Greenback, leading to a series of lower price action in the pair.

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December Cut pricing, November 21, 2025 – Source: FedWatchTool

However, Fed member communication continues to heavily influence flows. Comments from NY Fed President John Williams—a very influential voice—have put the December cut back firmly on the table, bringing pricing right back around 70% from 20% just yesterday morning.

As cuts are typically negative for a currency, this shift has applied fresh pressure on the Dollar, potentially boosting the pair as it tests its range lows.

Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde mentioned in a recent speech that Europe is "increasingly vulnerable to shocks," noting that the AI boom has further amplified the volatility seen in EU stocks throughout 2025. In the context of EUR/USD, both economies remain highly vulnerable to such market developments.

Let's dive in EUR/USD multi-timeframe analysis.

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EUR/USD Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Daily Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Oscillating between the 1.1470 Pivot Support zone and the 1.1650 Pivot Zone, the pair provides strong support and resistance levels to base analysis on.

2025 has been a trending year, but rangebound action takes place around 70% of the time in Markets and particularly in FX.

Hence, spotting ranges like these early can provide opportunities.

With the RSI also flattening, playing mean-reversion has high probabilities of functioning.

However, spot trends in the US Dollar: Strong numbers before the December 10 meeting can add further USD strength and break the 1.1470 Support. Let's take a closer look

4H Chart and Technical Levels

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EUR/USD 4H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView

EUR/USD responds well to overbought and oversold RSI levels, a good indicator of rangebound action.

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• 1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (range Highs)
• 1.1750 mini-resistance
• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone
• Weekly highs 1.1656

Support Levels

• 1.1470 to 1.15 range support
• 4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.16190
• 1.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone
• 1.1350 to 1.14 Support
• Session lows 1.14966

1H Chart

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EUR/USD 1H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Adding to the up-and-down price action, the key moving averages, particularly the longer 200-H MA is starting to flatten, indicating a non-trending environment.

Still, Traders will have to closely monitor the past week lows (1.1470) and highs (1.1656) to check for potential breakouts:

• A daily close above or below such levels would be indicative of a potential breakout
• Data can also have an influence on such trading ranges, therefore it is very important to keep track of releases.

Safe Trades!

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