Analyst Says It’s Time To Rethink Altcoins And Alt Season Expectations – Here’s Why

[Ben Graham]

As the market bleeds red and most altcoins lose crucial levels, some have suggested that investors must reshape their expectations of the crypto market this cycle and the long-awaited “alt season.”

Old Crypto Cycle Is Gone – Analyst

Over the past month, the crypto market has wiped out over $1 trillion in market capitalization due to a series of large-scale liquidations and strong selling pressure since the October 10 pullback, which has sunk investors’ sentiment to its lowest levels in months.

Amid this performance, the early Q4 rally buzz has faded, and most altcoins have lost the ground gained during the Q3 market breakout. Market observers have shared their outlook on how the crypto market has changed and what to expect in the future.

In October, Nic Carter, crypto investor and partner at Castle Island Ventures, weighed in on the shift in retail sentiment regarding most altcoins. As reported by NewsBTC, he affirmed that the bearish sentiment means the space has matured significantly.

Carter explained that crypto is “boring” now because most of the uncertainties that drove much of the historical volatility have been resolved, adding that the industry has also largely derisked as a technological substrate.

The investor considers that “crypto natives no longer control the narrative, there’s more serious businesses (which don’t require tokens), there’s less chaos, the whole space has matured significantly.”

In a Friday thread on X, the Altcoin Sherpa also discussed the market changes, affirming that the “old cycles” have been “dead” for a while. As he explained, the previous cycles consisted of an euphoric phase, a corrective phase, and an accumulation phase before the start of a recovery phase.

He highlighted the performance of Altcoins like Solana (SOL) between 2020 and 2024, noting that “this market environment is gone.” Instead, the analyst believes that the market is in a “hyper-accelerated regime.”

Altcoins In A ‘Hyper-Accelerated Regime’

Under this new regime, the market experiences short-term uptrends followed by mid-term downtrends, similar to the price action of altcoins like BONK since late 2023, Altcoin Sherpa added:

We have 1-3 months of pump followed by 2-6 months of downtrend and rinse repeat. There is no more euphoria where things go berserk for an entire year. Just 1-3 months and then down. Look how many cycles BONK had in a year or 2.

The analyst suggested that investors should not expect 2021 conditions for most altcoins or a traditional “Alt Season,” where most tokens experience massive gains at once. He advised to capitalize when the “good times” arrive and be aware that “price can still die in 3 months.”

“Reframe your brain in how you think about alt pumps and ‘alt season’. Coins will still downtrend, just not in a slow bleed. More [of] an accelerated destruction + carnage, Altcoin Sherpa detailed.

He also noted that, unlike previous cycles, altcoins will also recover “a bit quicker than before,” and won’t take over a year to bottom and accumulate before a new leg up begins again.

However, Sherpa affirmed that the lack of an accumulation phase will mean that “the overall coins will NOT have as strong of pumps like they used to,” as that period is what makes the rallies strong. “We aren’t seeing anything close to that anymore,” he concluded.