GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The GBP/USD pair reversed a slight decline against the backdrop of moderate dollar weakness but has so far failed to hold above the round level of 1.3100. However, uncertainty regarding the upcoming UK budget and rising expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Bank of England remain a restraining factor for spot price growth.

From a technical perspective, the downward break of the important 200-day simple moving average (SMA) last month was seen as a key trigger for bears. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart remain deep in negative territory, confirming the likelihood of sellers appearing just above the round level of 1.3100, near the 9-day EMA. Surpassing this level could trigger a new wave of short-covering.

A subsequent move above the 9-day EMA would help GBP/USD reclaim the round level of 1.3200 and rise above intermediate resistance at 1.3250, aiming to return to the round level of 1.3300, where the technically significant 200-day SMA is currently located. A sustained move beyond this SMA would shift the short-term bias in favor of bulls, paving the way for significant upside in the near term.

On the other hand, the 1.3040–1.3030 level continues to provide immediate support before a drop toward the psychological level of 1.3000. A confident break below this level would expose the next important support around 1.2950, before GBP/USD potentially falls to the next round level of 1.2900 and lower.

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