Markets rebound for Thanksgiving week as Fed comments and Tech giants boost sentiment

Ben Graham · Novembro 24

The past week was subject to more rounds of volatility, taking major US Indexes to retest and break below October lows.

Hawkish Fed fears and the cancellation of key October reports like the CPI—due to the recently ended 43-day government shutdown—brought further fears into an already fragile bull momentum.

However, an end-of-week rebound brought back some life into the market.

This shift occurred after NY Fed President John Williams mentioned that a rate cut "in the near term" is still appropriate, effectively signaling that a December cut is not impossible.

His comments helped bring the odds of a 25 basis point cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting from a low of around 20-35% back up to approximately 75%.

Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 11.18.06 AM — Evolution of the Fed's Rate Cut odds, November 24, 2025 – Source: Kalshi

This improved sentiment is combined with better geopolitical prospects in Ukraine, where an updated peace framework is well into negotiations.

The positive tone continued with news of a phone call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this morning to discuss trade and bilateral ties.

In the corporate sector, Tesla bounced over 6%, while Google (Alphabet) is up another 5.6%, with the latter buoyed by the recent launch of its revolutionary Gemini 3 model. Both tech giants are leading a number of other Megacaps higher.

Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 11.22.56 AM — US Equity Heatmap (11:21 A.M.) – November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Thanksgiving week has historically been positive for markets, often outperforming annual trends.

The rest will be to see if fears keep subsiding in the wait for more news, including tomorrow's release of the delayed September PPI and Retail Sales figures.

Let's dive right into the intraday outlook for all three US Major indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

A global Outlook on US Indices

Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 11.27.18 AM — US Main Indices Daily Outlook – Fakeout below October lows. November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Dow Jones 8H Chart and Technical Levels

Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 11.34.37 AM — Dow Jones (CFD) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Having corrected much less than its peers, the rebound in the Dow is more timid compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Currently facing the highs of its Momentum Pivot zone, small selling from the session highs is slowing the progress for the index.

Pushing above should lead to a decisive move higher, particularly if the RSI keeps pushing above its neutral zone.

Important Data points coming up throughout the week are also to be considered! Keep a close eye on the 47,000 Level

Dow Jones technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

Current All-time high 48,459
46,300 to 46,600 Momentum Pivot (immediate test and session highs)
Next Resistance 47,000 to 47,200 (8H MA 50 at 47,050)
Resistance zone 47,500 - 47,650 and 4H MA 50
Psychological resistance at 48,000

Support Levels

46,000 +/- 300pts Immediate Support
Tuesday Lows 45,925
45,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)
44,400 to 44,500

Nasdaq 8H Chart and Technical Levels

Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 11.41.41 AM — Nasdaq (CFD) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The tech-heavy index is enjoying quite a rebound, led from its Tech and Communication sectors' leaders, which brought Nasdaq right back into its more-balanced descending channel.

Suffering the most out of the three main US indexes (down beyond 8% from its all-time highs to the 23,840 lows), the ongoing mean-reversion move is also the most rapid, bringing RSI momentum back above neutral.

Now comfortably above its Momentum Pivot (24,500 +/- 125 points), buyers shouldn't have many concerns until the 25,000 Resistance that also meets the highs of the Channel.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)
Candle highs 24,925
All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850
Mini-resistance at 25,500 Gap
Current Pivot 25,050 to 25,200 (immediate resistance and Moving Averages)

Support Levels

24,510 Candle lows
24,500 Main support (testing)
October lows 23,997
Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 8H Chart and Technical Levels

Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 11.57.35 AM — S&P 500 (CFD) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 has also posted a spectacular rally since its Friday morning bottom, and now faces a strong test that actually could serve as indication for this week's sentiment.

Above 6,700, the mood could be proven to stay more positive as sellers will can get more dormant.

A daily close confirmation above the Broad Bear Channel (6,725) would also be needed.

Below however could create a more balanced-rangebound structure after months of volatility.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

6,930 (current All Time-Highs)
6,700 Key psychological level
Resistance 6,720 to 6,750
6,800 Psychological resistance
Higher bound of bear Channel 6,730

Support Levels

6,570 to 6,600 Key support
8H MA 200 at 6,669
6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)
6,400 psychological support

Safe Trades!

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