UBS raises copper price forecasts on supply concerns

Ben Graham · Novembro 25

Amid global mine disruptions and strong momentum on the demand side, UBS sees copper prices rising even higher heading into next year, with a market deficit that is expected to widen.

In a note published on Friday, UBS analysts lifted their copper price forecasts for successive quarters of 2026, beginning with $11,500 a tonne for March, followed by $12,000 and $12,500 for June and September respectively. They also introduced a first target for December at $13,000 a tonne.

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The new forecasts, according to the bank’s analysts, are largely down to persistent supply risks and falling inventories that are expected to keep conditions tight.

UBS noted that mine disruptions this year, including a fatal incident at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slower output recovery in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru, all underscore structural supply constraints that are likely to extend into 2026.

Factoring in those risks, the bank sees the copper market deficit rising significantly this year and the next. In 2025, the deficit could reach 230,000 tonnes, then nearly double to 407,000 tonnes in 2026. Previously, its market deficit forecasts for the two years were set at 53,000 tonnes and 87,000 tonnes, about a quarter of its current projections.

UBS also trimmed its refined copper production growth estimates to 1.2% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, citing grade declines and operational challenges.

Meanwhile, the bank expects global copper demand to grow 2.8% in both years, supported by electric vehicles, renewable energy, power-grid investment and data centres.

As a result, any weakness in prices should be short-lived and recommended remaining long copper or using volatility-selling strategies, it wrote.

On Tuesday, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange traded 0.3% higher at over $10,777 per tonne, about $500 shy of the record high $11,200 hit in late October. Prices on the COMEX rose 1.1% to $5.0215 per lb., equivalent to about $11,070 a tonne.