XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Gold's strong rally yesterday, along with its tilt toward the rising 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, confirmed the bulls' advantage in the market. The positive oscillators on both the 4-hour and daily charts also support the likelihood of further upside in XAU/USD in the near term. Therefore, further strengthening beyond the $4145–4150 level toward resistance at $4180 — on the way to the round $4200 level — appears quite likely. The momentum could continue and test the monthly high near $4245.

On the other hand, any pullback into the level of the 9- and 14-period EMAs on the same chart may be seen as a buying opportunity, with strong support expected near the $4110–4100 level.

A decisive break below this support would expose the 200- and 100-period SMAs as well as the 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart. A break below the 200-EMA would shift the short-term trend in favor of the bears, dragging gold prices toward the psychological $4000 level. Further selling would pave the way toward last week's low and potentially lower.

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