WTI. Price Analysis. Forecast. Concerns Over Supply Glut Weigh on Oil Prices

Ben Graham · Novembro 25

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices declined, retracing modest gains from the previous session, as traders reacted to reports of progress in U.S.-orchestrated peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Recent headlines indicated that Kyiv had reached a preliminary agreement on a U.S.-coordinated peace plan. According to ABC News, a U.S. official confirmed that the Ukrainian delegation reached an understanding with Washington regarding the terms of a possible peace agreement during talks held in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday.

Although the agreement is not yet finalized and political uncertainty remains, market participants see this as an early sign of potential easing of sanctions, which could lead to increased supplies of Russian oil in the long term.

In a broader context, concerns over supply glut continue to persist. Analysts still expect that production growth in the U.S. shale region and from non-OPEC countries will outpace global demand.

The situation within OPEC+ does not provide significant support. The group suspended production growth for the first quarter of 2026 after a noticeable plan to increase supplies earlier in the year, raising expectations for inventory increases as the year progresses.

Meanwhile, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have returned to the forefront following "dovish" comments from Fed officials. This could, in theory, support fuel demand, but traders are more focused on supply dynamics and news related to the peace process.

From a technical perspective, the repeated decline in price on the 4-hour chart below the 100-period simple moving average favors the bears. Oscillators on both the 4-hour and daily charts are negative, further supporting bearish sentiment. Strong support has been found at the $57.00 round level, below which prices would accelerate downwards towards the October low. Resistance is at the 9-day EMA ahead of the round level of $58.00.

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