Cardano’s Recovery Stalls, but TVL Growth Signals Could Spark Year-End Upside

[Ben Graham]

Cardano (ADA) is once again dealing with an unstable market stretch as its price hovers near one-year lows, but renewed optimism is building ahead of December’s long-awaited Midnight launch.

Despite persistent criticism over declining network usage and shrinking DeFi liquidity, fresh technical signals and upcoming ecosystem catalysts suggest the blockchain may be preparing for a recovery phase into year-end.

ADA Slumps as Liquidity and Sentiment Weaken

Cardano (ADA) trades around $0.41, marking a steep 70% decline from its December 2024 peak of around $1.2 and placing the token among the weakest performers in the latest market pullback.

Total value locked has plunged 36% in 30 days to $186 million, while stablecoin liquidity sits below $40 million, far behind competitors such as Monad, which neared $100 million in TVL shortly after launch.

The “ghost chain” narrative resurfaced again this week after network glitches prompted jokes about Cardano’s low activity. Even Nansen’s CEO predicted ADA could fall out of the top 20 as rivals gain traction in real-world assets, gaming, and high-volume DeFi.

Still, founder Charles Hoskinson insists the gloomy sentiment does not reflect what’s coming. In a recent update, he emphasized that Midnight, Cardano’s privacy-focused sidechain launching in December, is backed by major developer partnerships expected to reignite the ecosystem.

Technical Structure Points to a Potential Relief Rally

Despite bearish pressure, ADA’s chart shows signs of stabilizing. The token is forming a falling-wedge pattern, historically a bullish reversal indicator. The RSI sits at 30, signaling oversold conditions, while derivatives funding has turned positive, suggesting traders are positioning for upside.

Key resistance levels lie at $0.49 and $0.5097, with a breakout potentially driving price toward $0.50–$0.61. Analysts warn, however, that failure to hold the $0.39–$0.40 support range could expose ADA to deeper downside toward $0.277, the August 2023 low.

Midnight Launch Becomes Cardano’s Make-or-Break Catalyst

With DeFi activity shrinking and market confidence fragile, the December rollout of Midnight is emerging as the pivotal moment for Cardano’s 2025 outlook. Success could trigger a meaningful rebound in TVL and development activity, metrics traders increasingly rely on as proof of real adoption.

For now, ADA remains in consolidation mode, but the convergence of oversold technicals, whale accumulation, and ecosystem upgrades sets the stage for a possible year-end upside, if Cardano can finally convert anticipation into measurable on-chain growth.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview