USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Yesterday's rally in the pair encountered resistance around the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 156.70. This level has become a key barrier before further broad-based growth. A sustained move above this level would allow spot prices to overcome the round 157.00 level, continuing the rise toward intermediate resistance at 157.20, then 157.50, and eventually reaching the 158.00 round level — the highest value since mid-January, which was nearly reached last week.

On the other hand, a decline below the Asian session low near 155.70, as well as the previous Asian session low around 155.65, will open the path to deeper losses, pushing USD/JPY toward the psychological level of 155.00. A convincing break below this level could be seen as a new trigger for the bears, preparing the ground for the continuation of the weekly downtrend that began on November 20. However, it is worth noting that oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, which suggests the pair is not yet ready for a broad decline.

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