XRP Price At A Critical Turning Point: Analyst Maps Out Simple Rules For Breakout

[Ben Graham]

The monthly XRP chart has entered one of its most decisive phases in years, and one of the asset’s most vocal analysts is laying out a blunt roadmap. Egrag Crypto, known for his long-standing bullish stance on XRP, released a new technical update that breaks down the future outlook for the cryptocurrency into three straightforward outcomes. 

The chart accompanying his analysis shows XRP trading around the $2.20 region, sitting just above an important Fib support level but still wrestling with momentum, with the monthly candle about to close.

XRP Must Close Above $2.60 To Keep Bullish Momentum Intact

Egrag’s first decisive level is at $2.60, which matches with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level on the monthly chart. The analyst described a close above this region as bullish but the asset would not yet be fully clear of danger. The chart shows XRP repeatedly testing this price level in the first half of the year before breaking above it in July. However, the most recent breakdown in Q2 2025 has now put the price level in focus again.

The analysis becomes more aggressive once price action breaks above $3.40. EGRAG identified this as the 0.888 Fibonacci level, one of the final retracement zones.

According to him, a close above this level confirms a super-bullish macro breakout, which he summarized with the phrase “we are so back.” The chart reinforces this idea by showing a tight compression beneath this upper 0.888 Fib cluster, and that a decisive breakout could lead to a rapid move into new all-time high prices if there’s enough buying pressure.

XRP Price Chart. Source: @egragcrypto On X 

A Close Below 21 EMA Would Break Bullish Structure

The downside scenario in Egrag’s breakdown is equally straightforward. He warned that a close below the 21-month EMA would mean a severe failure of the bullish trend structure. His wording was intentionally harsh, noting that such a breakdown would mean “we are f**ked, no sugar-coating it.”

The chart shows the 21 EMA currently sitting around the $1.83-$1.90 price zone, forming the final major support on the monthly timeframe. Losing this level would drag XRP back into a deeper corrective zone and finally undo most of the price advancement made this year.

A significant development showed up towards the end of the week that aligns with the bullish continuation Egrag outlined. 21Shares confirmed that its US Spot XRP ETF, which is listed under the ticker TOXR, has received SEC approval and will officially launch on Monday.

The upcoming launch adds a perspective that institutional participation in XRP is only beginning. If inflows follow the early strength seen from other issuers, the ETFs could reinforce the bullish case Egrag mapped on the chart, especially if the XRP price is able to cross above $2.60 in December.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView