TARIFF EXPLODE: $31.4 record Billions in October – Trump Promises "Total Cut" in Income Tax While the Commercial War Redefines the US Balance

Igor Pereira · December 1, 2025

The latest data from the U.S. Treasury reveals a seismic transformation in how the US government finances itself. Tariff revenue (customs duties) has reached a historical record of $31.4 billion in October, overcoming all previous readings and signaling that Trump's aggressive commercial policy is not just rhetoric – it is a money-making machine.

By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

This massive flow of capital is fueling a bold political promise: the end of federal income tax for many Americans.

1. The Record Numbers: Rate as Pilar Fiscal

The Jump: The net collection of $31.4 billion in October is more than four times larger than the $7.3 billion collected in the same month last year.
Trend: It surpasses the previous September record (29.7 billion), confirming an acceleration trend.
The Accumulated: Independent models (Penn Wharton) estimate that the US has collected more than $320 billion in tariffs this year, almost twice 2024.

My Analysis (Igor Pereira): Tariffs are no longer a marginal revenue to become a central pillar of the federal budget. With an average tariff rate now at 17.6% (according to the Tax Policy Center), the US is effectively charging global consumption to finance the US state.

2. Trump’s Promise: Dividends and End of Income Tax

In a bombastic statement on Thanksgiving, Trump suggested that this recipe boom could allow:

Dividends to the Americans: Return some of the money directly to the citizens.
Tax Cut: "Cut substantially and maybe cut completely... income tax" for those who earn less than $200,000.

My Analysis: This is a proposal for total reengineering of the US social and fiscal contract. Replacing direct taxes (rent) with indirect taxes (tariffs) is an inflationary change by nature as it increases the cost of imported goods.

3. The Legal and Economic Risk

Supreme Court: The program faces a crucial test in the Supreme Court, with decision expected before the end of the year. A defeat could undo the whole scheme.
Market Impact: If the fares remain, wait higher inflation (due to import costs) and a dollar stronger in the short term (due to the lower need for debt issuance if the deficit falls), but with risks of global retaliation and total trade war.

Conclusion of Igor Pereira: Visual Structural Inflation

For the investor, the message is clear: tariff policy is inflationary. If the government uses this revenue to cut income taxes, it will stimulate domestic consumption by adding more wood to the fire of inflation.

Gold: It benefits as a hedge against structural inflation and the instability of global trade.
Dollar: It may benefit fiscally, but it will suffer from the reduction of global trade.

We are witnessing the rewriting of the rules of trade and global taxation.

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