What The Rapid XRP Outlfows From Crypto Exchanges Mean For The Price

Ben Graham · Dezembro 1

A sudden drop in XRP balances across major crypto exchanges has led to speculations about how this might affect the cryptocurrency’s price action. The movement was highlighted by analyst Vincent Van Code, who explained that the transfers are not simply a sign of long-term holders scooping up supply.

Instead, he pointed to the expanding influence of newly launched Spot XRP ETFs, which are now absorbing a significant share of market activity that once took place on retail platforms.

ETF Demand Is Pulling Liquidity Away From Exchanges

Van Code noted that billions of XRP leaving Binance, Upbit, and Kraken are largely flowing into ETF custodial wallets. This changes the way the market reacts to buying and selling pressure because retail exchanges now operate with thinner liquidity. When daily trading volume on those platforms averaged around the multi-billion-dollar range, it required very large orders to create noticeable price movement.

Now that volume has contracted, even moderate-sized trades can produce sharp intraday swings. The effect is a market environment that is fundamentally supported by ETF buying, yet increasingly sensitive to smaller sell-offs or sudden bids.

Even as exchange liquidity drops, Van Code noted that high-frequency trading firms are preventing price dislocations. These groups have already mastered the arbitrage models used in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and they have now adapted the same systems for XRP.

Whenever the ETF price drifts above or below its underlying value, the bots immediately correct the gap, keeping both markets tightly aligned. This mechanism makes sure that XRP still gets purchased during ETF creation events and provides a layer of structural stability, even though retail charts may begin to show more frequent spikes and dips.

What This Means For XRP’s Approach To New Price Highs

In Van Code’s view, the long-term picture for XRP is strengthened by this shift, even though the short-term experience for traders may become more uncomfortable. When XRP enjoyed daily spot volumes in the range of $2 billion to $3 billion on exchanges, you would typically need more than $200 million in concentrated buying or selling to push the price 5% to 10% in either direction.

Now that on-exchange volume has dropped toward levels below $1 billion a day, the equation looks very different. A sell order or resistance wall of around $15 million can now swing XRP by roughly 12% to 18% within a single hour in these thinner conditions. However, the saving grace is these arbitrage bots.

According to the analyst, XRP is still on track to reach $5. However, until the price adapts to reduced spot volume on exchanges, traders should be prepared for air pockets up to 20% in price, where relatively modest buy or sell flows can cause outsized moves.