Tin market deficit to tighten — report

[Ben Graham]

In its latest market report, Fitch Solutions’ BMI has raised its tin price forecast for 2026 to $35,000/tonne from $32,000/tonne previously, as continued supply issues keep markets on edge in the face of steady demand from the semiconductor industry. 

Supply is dominated by Indonesia, where production and exports are being affected by delays in approving annual work permits. Indonesia has long been the world’s largest exporter and the flow of metal to world markets has been interrupted several times in the past when the government tightened production and export rules. 

Tin’s supply chain is not just beholden to Indonesia’s resource nationalism but also to that of the Wa State in Myanmar.  

In July, the International Tin Association announced that shipments from Myanmar’s Wa state will resume in the coming months, as several operators at Man Maw have reportedly secured three-year mining permits.  

With no further update at the time of BMI`s report in late November, Fitch analysts have adopted a “wait and see approach”, as news of a resumption of tin mining at the Wa state have circulated markets for months without actually materialising. 

Historically, Myanmar is the world’s third largest tin producer, and, according to USGS data, it is estimated to have the third largest reserves in the world, at 700kt or 15% of total global reserves, after China and Indonesia (800kt and 720kt respectively). 

Supply & demand 

Three-month futures prices on the LME were hovering around $36,787/tonne on November 14, and BMI expects prices to remain supported by continued supply issues in the face of steady demand from the semiconductor industry. 

Mainland China’s tin smelter production remains constrained by the lack of sufficient concentrates, while the resilience in economic activity amid easing trade tensions have boosted demand from the semiconductor industry, analysts note.  

On the supply side, a thin pipeline of tin mining projects will tighten the tin concentrate market, leading to increased competition among smelters and constrained ore feed for refined output growth, Fitch notes.  

On the demand side, Fitch predicts the global use of tin will increase rapidly through the metal’s use in electronics (especially as electric vehicles increasingly contain greater amounts of electronics in their body) and solar panels (in photovoltaic cells), cementing tin’s status as a commodity of the future.  

Ultimately, this will allow the market to tighten, and Fitch expects a market deficit to tighten.