ANALISTA Igor Pereira Posted December 4, 2025 ANALISTA Report Share Posted December 4, 2025 While the eyes of the world are facing the Federal Reserve and the crisis in Europe, a critical warning signal has just been triggered in the fixed income market of the second largest economy in the world. The future titles of the 30-year-old Chinese government suffered an abrupt fall in 1.1%, reaching its weakest levels since November 2024. By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSEThis movement is not merely a technical adjustment; it is a symptom of deeper liquidity stress. Investors are withdrawing capital from fixed income funds at an alarming rate before crucial government meetings, signaling a crisis of confidence in Beijing's ability to manage its debt without causing collateral damage to the financial system. Sell-Off Anatomy: Regulation and FearThe increase in yields (yields) of 10 and 30-year-old banknotes — which move inversely to prices — reflects extreme caution on the part of institutional investors. My Analysis (Igor Pereira): What we're seeing is a "perfect storm" of negative factors. First, the underlying demand for Chinese assets is weak, eroded by the endless collapse of the real estate sector that continues to drain the wealth of families and businesses. Second, and perhaps more tactical, is the fear of new regulatory rules on mutual fund fees. The market fears that these changes force managers to liquidate positions to cover redemptions or adjust their cost structures, generating forced selling pressure. The Role of PBOC and the Scenario for 2026Jeffrey Zhang of Credit Agricole CIB notes that 10-year income should remain limited to a range-bound trading band in 2026. However, this stability depends entirely on the willingness of the Popular Bank of China (PBOC) to provide aggressive monetary flexibility to combat anemic growth. My Strategic Vision: If PBOC is forced to intervene to save the securities market (purchasing debt), it will inject more Yuan into the system, devaluing Chinese currency. This creates a positive feedback cycle for Gold (quoted in Yuan), which is already being negotiated with prize in Shanghai. The instability in China's sovereign securities market is another argument for diversification into real global assets. The fall in China’s future securities is a reminder that the liquidity crisis is not exclusive to the West. The global financial system is interconnected by debt. When investors flee China's long-term securities, they are signaling that the risk premium to maintain sovereign debt is increasing. For us at ExpertFX School, this reinforces the need to maintain positions in assets that are no one's liability: Gold and Silver. Want to take your analysis to the institutional level?This analysis is just the tip of the iceberg. ExpertFX School Premium Members Receive daily insights, premium analysis in-depth and Direct access to our closed group on Telegram, where we discuss the market in real time. Don't operate on noise. Operate based on intelligence. Access your dashboard and become Premium now: https://expertfxschool.com/dashboard Visitante_65d74b6a 1 1 Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Liked! × 💬 Did you like this content? Your feedback is very important! Liked! Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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