Stocks love the ADP miss – North American session Market Wrap for December 3

[Ben Graham]

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 3

The central theme of today’s session is once again, the only subject of concern for Markets (and for the right reasons): next week’s FOMC Meeting – 5 more sessions to go!

The 85%+ pricing for a 25 bps cut had been subject to volatility, but this morning’s ADP miss largely anchors it at elevated levels.

With ISM Services producing a beat (52.6 vs. 52.2 exp), but Prices Paid regressing, almost nothing stands in the way of a Fed cut, with tariff-led inflationary pressures remaining contained.

This helped cryptocurrencies to stay around the highs reached yesterday amid their ongoing rebound, but most importantly, allowed stock indexes to perform in yet another huge day. The session was particularly fruitful for Industrials and Small Caps, with the Dow up 1% at the session close and the Russell 2000 up 1.80%.

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US Equity Heatmap (Session close) – December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

An almost perfect mirror of yesterday's session!

The DJIA closed the session very near the 48,000 level.

Even the Nasdaq, which had been selling off earlier due to a Microsoft scare, was brought higher by the strictly positive inflows in the afternoon.

In other Markets, Gold initially gained momentum in the session but gave up most of its gains in the afternoon, while other precious metals remained muted.

Copper, on the other hand, is reaching some 6-month highs in COMEX and new Highs in London as closed mines, tariffs, and low exchange supply continue to underpin prices.

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Cross-Assets Daily Performance

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Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Global assets have been subject to quite some wild swings, with some resilience in Risk-Assets.

Bitcoin stayed elevated as it consolidates its prices around $90,000, the Dow beat all other major stock Indexes and the US Dollar took another hit.

A classic debasement trade day.

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

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Currency Performance, December 3 – Source: OANDA Labs

Today was all about US dollar weakness, dragging the Loonie to its depths and as the same time, pushing all currencies, particularly the Europeans bouncing higher – With GBP on top.

Check out our recent analysis for GBP/USD right here!

A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions

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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

The evening session will provide Trade Data for Australia, very important for the Aussie – The Australian economy is a large exporter.

The early morning session shall see the release of EU Retail Sales at 5:00 A.M. with a small beat (+0.1% M/M) expected.

But the real show will start in the US, once again fairly early with the Challenger Jobs Cut at 7:30 A.M. – Keep a note on this one as it was quite a mover last month.

An hour later, public Jobless Claims data will also be in the center of attention. The past releases haven't corroborated with the trend seen in ADP, so it'll be an interesting watch.

At 10:00 A.M, CAD traders will welcome the Ivey PMI data which looks to shed some light as the Loonie gets dragged lower once again.

Don't forget the several Central Bank speakers including Fed's Bowman – However, don't expect comments on Monetary Policy as the Blackout stands all the way to next Wednesday.

Safe Trades!

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