Low volatility session ahead of the Core PCE – North American session Market Wrap for December 4

Ben Graham · Dezembro 4

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 4

Markets traded in chaotic fashion today as the latest Jobless Claims report sent confusion waves to the market.

The headline number came at 191K vs 220K, the lowest since September 2022 (!)

A stark divergence is emerging between private labor data (looking at Tuesday's ADP report) and public data.

Some analysts have noted bad seasonal adjustments from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – Could there have been some reshuffling?

This morning's Challenger Report paradoxically confirms another rise, of a lesser extent, in US Layoffs. You can access the interesting report right here.

Markets unfortunately won't learn more on the issue until December 16, when the November Non-Farm Payrolls will be published.

In terms of Market movement, the US Dollar rebounded after the Claims, pushing Tech, Cryptocurrencies and Metals lower.

Silver actually rejected its highs quite aggressively, down 2.34% on the session.

Screenshot 2025-12-04 at 4.49.21 PM — US Equity Heatmap (Session close) – December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Cross-Assets Daily Performance

Screenshot 2025-12-04 at 5.01.57 PM — Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The range of movement has been contained in today's session throughout all asset classes, but there has been some extremes.

Oil rebounded about 1% today as the Trump Administration took off some sanctions against Lukoil, a Russian Energy company.

Metals also struggled apart from their precious leader, Gold, which finished higher by 0.75% on the day.

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

Screenshot 2025-12-04 at 4.54.21 PM — Currency Performance, December 4 – Source: OANDA Labs

Except for the Swissie, which has struggled throughout the entire session, there has been a lot of up-and-down action in an otherwise undecided FX market.

Keep an eye on the US Dollar after its mid-day rebound, particularly if the Core PCE comes in as-expected or stronger.

Both the AUD and JPY remain on top, but their gains are relatively muted.

A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions

Screenshot 2025-12-04 at 4.58.40 PM — For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

Tomorrow's session (Friday) is packed with the final gauntlet of high-tier data for the week.

The early European session features growth data, with Eurozone GDP (Q3) and Employment Change releasing at 05:00 A.M. ET. Traders will watch to see if the region is maintaining its fragile recovery (Consensus 0.2% QoQ).

However, the North American Session will likely drive the most volatility:

The day starts with a double shocker with for Canadian Employment (08:30 A.M. ET) and the main event, US Core PCE Price Index at 08:30 A.M. ET.

As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, a reading matching the consensus of 2.9% YoY (steady from previous) is expected.

Any deviation here will be the final factor pricing the interest rate decision for next Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The morning wraps up with Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 A.M. ET.

Crucial Note: Apart from these final data points, the calendar is effectively clear until the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, making Friday's close critical for positioning.

Safe Trades!

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