GOLD (XAU/USD) IN POINT OF DECISION: The Technical Battle for the Pivot of $4.200 and the Wyckoff Structure of Reaccumulation

[Igor Pereira]

The gold market (XAU/USD) is at a time of critical definition, currently negotiated in the region of $4,197.25 (December 5th closure). After an expressive rally of several weeks that culminated in the peak of $4,381 at the end of October, precious metal entered a phase of tactical consolidation.

By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

The recent weekly performance, with a slight fall of 0.27%, maskes the intense dispute between buyers and sellers within the consolidation interval of $4,114 to $4,213. The daily chart reveals a healthy corrective recoil within a macro ascending channel established since mid 2024, but the momentary loss of the psychological level of $4,200 lights up a warning signal for the short term.

The Technical Structure and Dynamics of Mobile Media

From the perspective of the Wyckoff methodology, we are observing a potential structure of Reaccumulation. The price is testing the 50-day Simple Mobile Average (SMA), located in $4,209.03, which has acted as a crucial dynamic pivot. The inability to resume this level quickly suggests that Smart Money may be seeking liquidity at lower levels before a new boost. The defense of this structure is vital; a sustained break below the 50-day SMA and immediate support could invalidate the immediate high thesis and accelerate the risks of falling (markdown), while a firm rebound above $4.200 would signal that the absorption of the offer was completed.

Liquidity and Support Areas: Where Smart Money Positions Orders

The current conditions of short-term oversale, evidenced by indicators such as RSI in 38.30, suggest that we are approaching areas of institutional interest. We identified three main trenches for the bulls. The first is the Immediate Support (S1) at $4,180–$4,190, aligned with SMA of 5 days; losing this area exposes the price to a more acute correction. The second and most important is the area Key (S2) between $4,160–$4,170. This area represents a robust technical confluence with the previous 20-day and minimum weekly AME, being a strong historical recovery point — this is where institutional analyses point to tactical inputs (e.g. entry into $4,184 with protection below $4,167). In a scenario of "black swan" or deep correction, the Minor Support (S3) at $4,100–$4.110 would be the final target, coinciding with the lower limit of the ascending channel.

The Barriers of Sale: Resistances and Goals

For the upward trend to be resumed vigorously, gold needs to overcome clear supply obstacles. A Immediate Resistance (R1) at $4.200–$2.210 is the first test; this "round number" now acts as a ceiling, where short-term sellers try to defend their positions. The real "Breakout" would occur in overcoming the Key Resistance (R2) at $4.220–$2.230, level that marks the SMA of 20 days and recent maximums. A daily closure above this zone would open the way to test intermediate resistances in $4,245 and, finally, aim the institutional objectives of the end of the year in the projection of $4,300. The scenario remains constructive as long as Fed policy continues to signal accommodation, but patience is the virtue of the moment until the $4.200 pivot is regained.

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