What to Pay Attention to on December 9? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

[Ben Graham]

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday. As mentioned earlier, the only noteworthy reports are the JOLTs and ADP reports from the U.S. The ADP report cannot be considered significant, as it will present weekly changes in the number of employees in the private sector rather than monthly data. The JOLTS report on job openings will be published for September and October, meaning this data is already outdated, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to consider it in its decisions on Wednesday. There is still a lack of crucial data, such as NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment rates, and inflation.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are also a few fundamental events scheduled for Tuesday. The main highlight is the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. There are several reasons for this. First, Bailey speaks very rarely, making each of his speeches an Event with a capital "E." Second, the BoE may ease monetary policy next week due to weakening inflationary pressures, as well as weakness in the labor market and the economy. However, there is no certainty among traders regarding this, so any hints from the BoE's head would be beneficial. There are no scheduled speeches from Fed representatives today, as the U.S. central bank's meeting begins today.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to be oriented toward growth as the formation of the upward trend continues in both cases. The euro has an excellent trading range of 1.1655-1.1666. The British pound has a range of 1.3319-1.3331. Volatility on Tuesday may again be low, but the pair could trade a bit more actively during the U.S. trading session.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com