GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

This Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair is attracting buyers after yesterday's mixed price action, holding steadily above the key 1.3300 round level. However, no aggressive buying is observed, as traders prefer to remain cautious ahead of this week's major central bank events.

On Wednesday, at the end of its two-day meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision. It is widely expected that the Fed will lower borrowing costs once again. This outlook is limiting the U.S. dollar's recent recovery from December lows and is pushing GBP/USD higher.

In addition, last week the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast for UK economic growth, noting that the Bank of England will conclude its monetary-easing cycle in the second quarter of 2026. This news supports the British pound and provides an additional basis for strengthening the GBP/USD pair.

However, pound buyers seem reluctant to open aggressive positions due to expectations that the Bank of England will also cut interest rates this month—though slightly later than the Fed. These forecasts were reinforced by the latest UK inflation data, which showed that the annual headline CPI slowed to 3.6% in October after holding steady at 3.8% for three consecutive months.

Accordingly, this allows traders to wait for more active buying before opening new positions in anticipation of a continued GBP/USD rally from the psychological 1.3000 level.

Today, for better trading opportunities, it is worth paying close attention to speeches by Bank of England members, as well as the release of the weekly ADP employment report and the JOLTS job openings report during the U.S. trading session.

From a technical standpoint, the pair has not yet overcome major resistance levels—the 200-day and 100-day SMAs—which are needed for continued growth toward the 1.3400 round level. Support is located at the 1.3300 round level, below which the 50-day SMA may provide an additional cushion before a potential decline toward the 1.3200 level.

For now, with oscillators on the daily chart remaining positive, the GBP/USD pair maintains a bullish tone.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com