USA ADP Jobs Reveals Anemic Creation of Only 4.750 Vacancies per Week

[Igor Pereira]

While the market awaits official data, the report NER Pulse ADP has just launched a reality bomb that few are discussing. High frequency data show that US private employers have added, on average, only 4,750 vacancies per week in the four weeks ended November 22, 2025.

By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

For an economy that employs more than 160 million people, this number is not only low; it is statistically irrelevant. We're operating on the "stole speed". If we design this weekly average for the month, we are talking about a monthly job creation of less than 20,000 vacancies — a level unequivocally associated with recessive periods.

This dismounts the narrative that the labour market remains robust. A hiring rate of 4.750/week indicates that companies have stopped expanding. The hiring freeze is the classic precursor to mass layoffs. In an environment where consumer credit is stretched and the bankruptcies of small businesses reach records, the refusal of the private sector to hire signals that corporate profits are under severe pressure and that the confidence of entrepreneurs has evaporated. The "Smooth Land" would require the creation of healthy vacancies (100k-150k/month); what we are seeing is a forced landing.

Implications for the Fed and Tomorrow's Decision

For the Federal Reserve, this data is a nightmare. It confirms that the restrictive policy (high interest) has already caused structural damage to the ability to generate jobs. With the interest decision set for tomorrow and the JOLTS data leaving today at noon, this number of ADP dramatically increases the pressure for an interest cut. The Fed is no longer fighting inflation; now, it is running out of time to prevent this "freeze" in hiring from turning into a spiral of unemployment. If official data confirm this anemic trend, the argument for a 50bps cut gains immediate institutional strength.

---

Want to take your analysis to the institutional level?

This analysis is just the tip of the iceberg. ExpertFX School Premium Members Receive daily insights, premium analysis in-depth and Direct access to our closed group on Telegram, where we discuss the market in real time.

Don't operate on noise. Operate based on intelligence.

Access your dashboard and become Premium now: https://expertfxschool.com/dashboard