US Economic Data Foreshadows FOMC: JOLTS Job Openings and 10 Yr Bond Auction

Ben Graham · Terço em 15:41

If you’re looking for US economic data, you’ve come to the right place. A rare mix of optimism and uncertainty is steering the final weeks of 2025, with investors rotating back into risk assets even as the United States enters a murky period of incomplete information.

With that said, the latest JOLTS report surprised many with 7.66 million openings in October, up from 7.23 million in August and nowhere near the drop economists were betting on. Hiring stayed flat at 5.1 million, and quits and layoffs barely moved. The picture is that the labor market won’t cool and won’t give policymakers the clean narrative they want.

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Additionally, the October government shutdown left critical indicators missing, stitched together, or delayed, and that blackout now hangs over the final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year.

According to FRED data, the S&P 500 sits just below its October peak, with strategists surveyed by Bloomberg projecting a climb to 7,269 by the end of 2026. CoinGecko shows crypto markets broadly flat over the past month, while Glassnode data indicates Bitcoin’s on-chain realized losses are rising again. Here’s what you need to know:

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October’s data gap is crucial. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it did not conduct its household employment survey and will not retroactively fill the missing report. CPI and payroll data for that month were either canceled or merged into November’s releases. The Cleveland Fed and Conference Board postponed their indexes entirely.

One Bloomberg strategist put it bluntly: “Markets are flying without instruments.”

For investors, that means uncertainty over core indicators like labor churn, wage pressure, and inflation stickiness, all of which normally guide risk positioning into year-end. The Fed will be forced to read partial data as it considers what is likely its third 25 basis point cut of the year.

In other news, global central banks add to the volatility: odds sit high for a Bank of England cut next week and a Bank of Japan hike, a slightly surreal reversal of pandemic-era dynamics.

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Bloomberg’s survey of thirty-nine global money managers shows a strong tilt toward risk-on positioning. Yet historically, the S&P 500 rarely delivers a quiet 8% return. Markets tend to overshoot in both directions, and 99Bitcoins analysts project that clusters around a mid-single-digit year often end up being wrong.

“This is the first year since 2021 where the base case isn’t a recession,” – Bloomberg

Still, with the October data hole and liquidity thinning into the holidays, a shock could land harder than usual. As for Bitcoin BTC $93,932.07 0.69% Bitcoin BTC Price $93,932.07 0.69% /24h Volume in 24h $44.55B Price 7d Learn more , it’s slightly up on the day.

The next 72 hours will shape the final weeks of 2025. JOLTS, ADP, energy reports, Treasury auctions, and the Fed decision arrive while the market navigates missing government data and a fragile macroeconomic balance. Wouldn’t want to be those guys right about now.

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Key Takeaways

If you’re looking for US economic data, you’ve come to the right place. A rare mix of optimism and uncertainty is hitting the US…
Still, with the October data hole and liquidity thinning into the holidays, a shock could land harder than usual.

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