COMEX: Why are Silver Contracts "disappearing" in Roll Time? Paper Market Is Fleeing from Delivery Risk

[Igor Pereira]

For weeks, we have been monitoring with magnifying glass the future contract of silver with maturity in March 2026, which has accumulated one of the largest open positions (Open Interest - OI) in recent years. On November 29, this number was 118,815 contracts. Up until then, it looked like a stable buildup and no signs of stress.

By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

However, today we see a critical behavioral change. The March OI has fallen to 118,034. Numerically, it's a small change. But structurally, the way this happened is what lights up the red alert at the institutional tables.

In a normal market cycle, when traders close positions in a month to come, they usually "roll forward" for future months to maintain exposure. We would see the contracts of May, July or September 2026 increase in volume.

But this time, that didn't happen. The positions just disappeared.

• There was no migration to May.

• There was no rotation for July or September.

• Not even for 2027.

There was only a way out.

There are several possible technical explanations: pure settlement, margin risk reduction, netting internal between large players or VET transfers (Exchange for Physical) to London. They're all valid.

But regardless of the mechanism, the final result is the same: the paper market chose not to remain on the path that leads to physical delivery.

This is the first true behavioral change we see in this cycle. When open interest falls without scrolling, it means that participants prefer no exposure have future exposure. This only happens when volatility is rising, physical availability is uncertain or the system is tightening internally.

We are not calling for an immediate collapse, but we are identifying a clear pattern: paper money is retreating from the months of delivery rather than rolling the bet. This has not been common in silver, definitely not on this scale.

In a tight global physical market (London, Shanghai, India), these little behavioral signals are the ones that indicate where the wind is blowing before the storm hits the coast. The paper market is blinking. Physical accumulators recognize this long before the mainstream.

Stay informed. Stay physical.

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