ANALISTA Igor Pereira Posted December 11, 2025 ANALISTA Report Share Posted December 11, 2025 Forget the political rhetoric and the optimistic headlines of TV. The most reliable indicator of future economic health in the United States, the Leading Economic Index® (LEI)You just sent out a red code signal we hadn't seen in over a decade. The index fell to its lowest level in 11 years. By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSEBut the most terrifying data is the duration of the fall: the LEI has been in decline for more than 3 consecutive years. This is the longest negative sequence since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. In modern economic history, there has never been a fall of this magnitude and duration without a recession occurring or imminent. What is dragging the LEI into the abyss? The report is clear: manufacturing sector. As we alerted yesterday with ADP data, the American industry is not just slowing down; it is shrinking. New orders for manufactured goods are drying, hours are falling and industrial employment is being decimated. The chart below shows how new manufacturing orders (New Orders) are collapsing, acting as a heavy anchor for the whole economy: Math is relentless. The law does not fail. A 3-year decline indicates that the structural foundations of the economy are corroded. For the Economy: The Soft Landing is a fantasy. We're walking to a sudden stop. For the Fed: They're late. Yesterday's interest cut was just the beginning of the panic. They'll have to cut a lot more and print a lot more to try to reverse this chart. For Gold and Silver: This is the perfect scenario. Economic recession + Fed inflationary response = Price explosion potential in real assets. Conclusion: The law shouted "Recession." The Fed shouted "Liquidity" (with the end of QT). You have two choices: trust the government or trust Gold, who will win? Want to take your analysis to the institutional level?This analysis is just the tip of the iceberg. ExpertFX School Premium Members Receive daily insights, premium analysis in-depth and Direct access to our closed group on Telegram, where we discuss the market in real time. Don't operate on noise. Operate based on intelligence. Access your dashboard and become Premium now: https://expertfxschool.com/dashboard Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Liked! × 💬 Did you like this content? Your feedback is very important! Liked! Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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