Stocks rotation begins: Dow Jones leads the market while Nasdaq and Tech retreat

Ben Graham · Quinta em 16:38

Today's equity flows are largely prolonging what happened ahead of the FOMC:

The Dow Jones extends its lead and recently broke all-time Highs, while the Tech Sectors and Nasdaq are struggling.

Breaking News: Dow Jones (DJIA) breaks its record to 48,500

For those who missed the morning labor update, Jobless Claims regained their path higher at 236K vs 220K expected, catching up after the past week's low release (due to seasonal adjustments from Thanksgiving) – Forging the path to more rate cuts in 2026

After its strong outperformance throughout 2025 (currently at + ~22%), the Tech-heavy Nasdaq is getting dragged lower as peak-AI fears and elevated valuations leads to a huge shift towards Traditional and Defensive sectors – Nasdaq gapped lower by 0.63% and went down all the way to -1.53% at the open!

Up 2.20% in two days, the Dow Jones (+ ~13% since the beginning of the year) had lagged its peers is now attempting to catch up.

Screenshot 2025-12-11 at 10.46.17 AM — US Main Indexes Daily Outlook. December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Healthcare, Credit Services (Visa up close to 4%), Consumer Defensives and Industrials are leading the current rebound, while Technology, Semiconductors and Communication Services are the worst Sectors in today's picture.

Stocks, particularly in traditional sectors tend to love rate cuts as such debt-heavy industries can finally reduce their debt-service after more than two years of +4% Interest Rates.

The US Dollar is getting hammered quite harshly and is as always a leading indicator to Equity performance – Keep an eye on the DXY!

Screenshot 2025-12-11 at 10.55.31 AM — Current picture for the Stock Market (10:54 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView

Let's dive into intraday timeframe analysis for the three major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500!

Dow Jones – Rams through its preceding record

Screenshot 2025-12-11 at 11.20.29 AM — Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

DJIA is exploding within its steep upward channel formed after reaching its November lows – Up around 6% since!

Bouncing from its 50-Period Moving Average (47,844), buyers are taking back control of the action.

Breaching the 48,500 to 48,750 Resistance Zone will still be critical to materialize a decisive push to a concrete breakout in the Index – Except for some slightly overbought conditions, the Price action suggests that the move should continue.

Dow Jones technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

All-time High resistance between 48,500 to 48,720 (testing)
49,000 Psychological level and Fibonacci Target 1 and Channel highs
Potential Fib Target 2 49,526
50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target 3 (50,159)

Support Levels

1H mini-Support at Yesterday's close 48,000
Short-term Channel lows 47,800
Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200
August highs and November Lows 45,715
45,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)

Nasdaq – Taking a hit

Screenshot 2025-12-11 at 11.28.20 AM — Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The picture is looking very different for the Nasdaq which had recovered strongly since its November catastrophic drop.

Bears are in control of the short-term momentum and the Mid-term is now neutral (from bullish)

Now moving below its 50-period MA, previous support and now resistance, it seems that every extra point in the Dow Jones costs the Nasdaq the same margin.

Keep an eye on a potential Short-term bear channel (see on chart) and reactions to the 25,000 Support Zone.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)
All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)

Support Levels

Major Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 pts (breaking)
Support 25,000 to 25,250
24,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)
October and November lows just below 24,000
Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

Explore our recent detailed review of the Index right here:

Nasdaq 100: Post-FOMC gains wiped out, but technicals are still bullish

S&P 500 – Rangebound action

Screenshot 2025-12-11 at 11.34.54 AM — S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Spoose has been boring as of late, not generating much movement or volatility since recovering most of its November drop.

Rangebound between 6,800 and 6,900, it looks like the Index to play if you like to trade consolidations.

Watch how it reacts to its extremes – The range doesn't have many reasons to break before next week's data releases.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

6,930 (current All Time-Highs)
Weekly highs 6,896
Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)
ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930

Support Levels

6,800 Psychological Pivot
Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 50
6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)
6,400 psychological support

Safe Trades!

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