Why Bitcoin Locked While the Rest of the World Fires?

[Igor Pereira]

Everyone asks me the same thing: "Igor, why can't Bitcoin break tops while the Actions explode and Gold flies over $4,300?"

After hours on institutional derivative data, I found the answer. It's not on the price chart, but hidden in the flow of options. And the graphics I bring today tell the complete story of a "silent war" that is stifling the price.

By Igor Pereira

Divergence: ETFs vs. HODLERS

The market is divided into two opposing forces that are neutralizing the share of the price:

1. The Native Market: Long-time Bitcoin holders are selling in force. Not only by selling the asset in plain sight (spot), but by selling upside through Calls. This constant offering creates a roof that kills any momentum High before he turns into a snowball.

2. The ETF Market (Buyers): On the other side, the IBIT traders (BlackRock's ETF) are doing the opposite. They're paying dearly for the potential discharge.

The Evidence in the Data

Note carefully the Implicit Volatility Graph (BVOL) below:

• White Line (IBIT): It represents the volatility of the ETF.

• Red Line (BTCA): It represents the volatility of the native currency.

Notice how the white line takes off upwards of the red line, especially in the high zones (right side of the curve). This visually confirms that the ETFs market (IBIT) is pricing and seeking high, while the native market (BTCA) is suppressing volatility.

Where Is the money there?

When analyzing the Open Interest (Open Interest) of the IBIT, we see the confirmation of this thesis. The big blue bubbles show a massive concentration of betting at much higher prices (Moneyness above 120-140) for future earnings.

Institutional investors via ETF want Calls (purchasing options) and are positioning for months ahead.

The problem is that this mismatch kills volatility. Implicit volatility slipped from the house from 60% to mid 40%. When volatility is crushed like this, Bitcoin goes sideways (consolidation), generating frustration rather than euphoria.

ExpertFX View: Bitcoin is now a market for traders, not a market for trends. As long as the native market continues to sell volatility against ETF demand, we will not see the Melt-Up.

The next big move will not start with the price, but when volatility returns. Until this scenario changes, patience is the only winning strategy.

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I warned the exact fund at $34k and the top at $126k. I'll do it again. Stay tuned at ExpertFX School.

Igor Pereira Your Financial Market Analyst