Did the Supreme Court Overturn Trump's Tariffs? Part 2

[Ben Graham]

The most interesting aspect of this story is that the US Supreme Court may issue a decision that is "neither here nor there." On one hand, the court has already ruled that Trump did not have the authority to impose global tariffs. On the other hand, it acknowledges that refunding customs duties could be extremely complicated and significantly harm the American economy. Thus, the highest court does not want to enter into open conflict with Donald Trump while also recognizing that, should it issue a favorable ruling, the White House could continue to use any law to advance decisions it favors.

Therefore, there is a high likelihood that the court will block further import duties but, at the same time, refuse to require the US government to refund all previously collected tariffs. This could be seen as a "Solomonic decision." However, in my opinion, even such a ruling would benefit the White House, as Trump and his aides have repeatedly stated that, in the event the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs, they would be prepared to reinstate all tariffs under other laws. Thus, it is evident that in some form, the trade war will continue for a long time. Consequently, the American dollar is unlikely to experience a sharp surge in optimism, even if the court rules against the American president.

Meanwhile, several international and multinational corporations have also filed lawsuits in the US International Trade Court seeking to overturn the tariffs, recover all payments made, and prohibit the US government from collecting tariffs in the future. There are already more than 70 such companies. The companies' attorneys argue that, according to the law from 1977, the president's administration is only authorized to impose targeted tariffs or sanctions, not comprehensive tariffs that affect entire countries. Company representatives have stated that the tariffs have significantly increased their costs, disrupted supply chains, harmed their businesses, and raised prices for American consumers.

No one is expecting a quick verdict, and the Supreme Court has indicated that a final decision will be made no later than the end of its session in June 2026. Thus, an additional six months of trade war is an objective reality.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the US currency. The targets for the current trend segment may reach the 25 figure. The current upward wave structure is beginning to develop, and it is hoped that we are now witnessing the construction of an impulsive wave set that is part of a global wave 5. Therefore, we should expect growth up to the 25 figure, as I mentioned earlier.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has evolved. We continue to deal with an upward impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C at 4 appears to be complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume construction, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.

In the short term, I anticipated the formation of wave 3 or c, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to 76.4% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c continues to form, and the current wave set is beginning to take on an impulsive form. Consequently, one can expect price increases to continue, with targets around 1.3580 and 1.3630.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to replay and often carry changes.
2. If there is uncertainty in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective orders, such as stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com