TODAY: Unemployment rate and Trump's speech, volatility in sight

[Igor Pereira]

Traders, full attention. The market today is not for amateurs. We have a perfect storm forming with two critical events that will dictate the direction of the dollar, gold (XAU/USD) and indices in the coming hours.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst & Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

1. The Most Important Data of the Month: Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET / 10:30 BRT)

At one point, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases "delayed" unemployment data from the US Shutdown. That's the trigger the big institutional funds are waiting for. Liquidity will dry minutes before and explode soon after.

Here's the Reaction scenario I designed for today:

• Rate < 4.6% (below expected):

  • Which means: Resilient economy, "Soft Landing" confirmed.

  • Impact: The market tends to go into mode Congratulations. . Risk aversion falls, favoring strong high indices and recovery of risk assets.

• Rate = 4.6% (On-line):

  • Impact: Side market (FLAT). The price will get stuck in accumulation bands, hunting stops on both sides. Watch out for false ruptures.

• Rate > 2.4% (worse than expected):

  • Which means: Signs of recession or abrupt deceleration.

  • Impact: The market will be DESTROY (REKT) . Prepare for massive sales (sell-off) in stocks and crypt, while the Dollar can gain strength as refuge or the Gold shoot for fear.

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2. Speech by President Trump (2:00 PM ET / 16:00 BRT)

As if not enough, President Trump will make a "Great Speech" This afternoon. Historically, when he promises something big, the market reacts violently.

• What to expect: High volatility in DXY (dollar index) and Gold during speech.

• Recommendation: If you operate leveraged, protect your positions or stay out at that time. One tweet or a phrase outside the script can turn the graph upside down in seconds.

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I'm positioned and monitoring the institutional flow. If unemployment comes below 4.4 percent, I'll be looking for confirmations on the retest. If it comes up, I'll look for sales in favor of the panic tendency.

Stay tuned for real-time updates as soon as the dice comes out.

Deal safe.