US Stocks struggle: Unemployment rate ticks up to 4.6% after NFP release

[Ben Graham]

The open was timid after the small beat in NFP that is getting outshined by the tick-up on the Unemployment Rate (UE Rate), leading to a worsening sentiment.

(You can check the details of the report right here).

A focus on the UE rate by Market Participants is logical, after a few months of unreliable public labor statistics from the US Stat Agency (the BLS).

Still, they released October numbers at -105K (November came at +64K), which contributed to the higher UE.

A concern on the growth of temporary jobs outshining long-term jobs is something to note for the alarmists, but private payrolls are also stabilizing after a long-lasting drop.

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Private sector growth – Downtrend is slowing, not going negative for now. December 16, 2025. Source: Labor Statistics (published by Nick Timiraos)

Overall, the Fed warned of a slowing Labor Market, a decent reason for the recent 25 bps cut which roughly comes just a bit above the Fed's 2025 Year-End projections (4.5% projected, unrounded is at 4.564%) but not too concerning.

Still, Stock traders seem to be shying off their traditional December buying spree.

Some dip-buyers are lifting the retracement in Stocks after their drop, but they are coming in more active in Bonds – Safer assets in demand implies some concerns, but these flows are for now far from a trend.

Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500.

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The Current Heatmap isn't too joyful

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Some Red for Santa? – Current picture for the Stock Market (10:40 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 16, 2025

Dow Jones – Rebounding from pre-FOMC highs

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Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Dow has retraced from its post-FOMC all-time highs, but is now rebounding from its Meeting highs at 48,130 – Keep an eye on this level for intraday bull/bear strength.

• Closing above maintains a retracement/retest bias
• Below however implies further weakness ahead.

The 2H RSI is sending some bearish signals, rejected its neutral-line. For intraday traders, keep an eye on the Descending Channel.

Dow Jones technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• All-time High resistance between 48,400 to 48,886 (rejecting)
• November ATH 48,459 – top of retracement channel, acting as resistance
• 50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)

Support Levels

• Daily lows and FOMC highs 48,130
• Short-term support 47,800
• Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200
• August highs and November Lows 45,715
• 45,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)

Nasdaq – Testing 25,000

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Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq is moving in a traditional aggressive fashion.

After breaking 25,000 at the open, bulls came back to bring current trading right above.

Still, keep an eye on both the descending channel for directions and the Psychological Level towards the close to measure sentiment.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Daily highs and Channel highs 25,170
• Major Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 pts
• intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
• Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)

Support Levels

• Support 25,000 to 25,250 (testing)
• Session lows 24,835
• 24,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)
• October and November lows just below 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 – Still rangebound

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S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Despite the Double Top from last Friday, the 6,800 to 6,900 range is holding tight.

Still, the current rebound is a bit shy after faking out below (6,789) so bulls still have to manage a stronger bounce to grab the hand.

Bears will want to see a close below 6,800 to take control.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

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