Markets Slide as US Employment Falters – North American Mid-Week Market Update

Ben Graham · December 17, 2025

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

Last week, the FOMC delivered a highly expected 25 bps cut, which was quickly repriced from the final stretch of November trading.

But at what cost?

As Fed Goolsbee warned, cutting preemptively risks boosting an inflation rate that remains a wildcard—a concern that will be tested by tomorrow’s November CPI report.

For equity bulls this is starting to be a real concern: reignited inflation could severely compromise the prospects for future cuts in 2026.

The overall theme for US Markets going into next year is one of uncertainty.

Markets Slide as US Employment Falters – North American Mid-Week Market Update - ExpertFX School — US Unemployment Rate since 1980 – Rounding Higher. Source: FRED

On one hand, the North American economy is still performing quite well, as seen with Canada’s recent upbeat data and overall strong US GDP numbers.

On the other hand, Markets are forward-looking, and participants are starting to wonder if things can get much better from here as valuations could be overextended relative to the current environment.

If high prices are met with earnings disappointments, the fallout could be painful.

Meanwhile, the Trump Administration continues to surprise investors—who had largely decided to ignore political noise throughout 2025—with renewed geopolitical volatility involving Venezuela.

However, there is a glimmer of hope as the Ukraine-Russia conflict finally begins to look a bit more stable.

Two real catalysts that could relaunch markets into genuine momentum would be the cancellation of tariffs in 2026, or the appointment of a truly credible Fed Chair.

Until then, visibility remains low—things should get at least a bit clearer after tomorrow’s pivotal CPI report.

North-American Indices Performance

The Dow Jones, which got a significant boost from the FOMC rate cut, is the only OECD index trading higher after the past week and a half stretch.

But things are looking sour for equities overall. Tech is looking pretty dark – Nasdaq is down 3.70% since last Monday.

Bulls will need to hold tight to avoid beginning the next year on a rough start.

Dollar Index 8H Chart

The Dollar Index broke its support and just formed a break-retest formation of its preceding support (98.50 to 98.80 Pivot Zone), pointing at further downside.

Still, things will be interesting particularly if cuts get pushed back further which once again depends on tomorrow's inflation number.

If bears keep control of the action (keep an eye on the downwards channel).

The MA 50 to 200 forming a bear cross could also be bringing further reasons for sellers to maintain their activity.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

98.50 to 98.80 Pivot Zone
Pivot turned Resistance 99.25 to 99.50
100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone
100.376 November highs

Support Levels

98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips) – Current test
97.87 Daily lows
97.40 to 97.80 August Range Support
Mini-support 98.50
2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

The Loonie came strong against the AUD and USD, but these currencies have generally been the weakest of majors of the past few weeks.

European currencies keep their hard grip on the Loonie and the USD once again.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

Levels of interest for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

1.38 Handle Major Pivot +/- 150 pips and 4H MA 50
1.38730 FOMC Highs
1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance
1.40 Resistance

Support Levels

August support 1.3750
Past week lows 1.3730
1.3660 July Breakout support
1.3550 Main 2025 Support

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

Safe Trades!

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