NVDA and Tech Stocks rebound again after CPI miss – US Index Outlook

[Ben Graham]

Equity Markets welcomed a large miss on the US Inflation report from this morning.

While the weekly labor Jobless Claims report continued to affirm a softening but not crashing employment picture, high concerns on US Inflation and its prospects for 2026 were hurting Appetite for Stocks.

Combined with quite gloomy reports from Fed Members, US NFP and the latest Bank of America Survey, it seemed that the trading days leading to the end of the calendar year would not be as joyful as early 2025 was.

But the huge miss in this morning's CPI report helped to ease the uncertainty.

A 0.4% miss on the 3.1% high expectations have largely helped Swap Traders to price in higher odds of a more prolonged Rate Cut cycle from the Fed.

A great booster for Equity demand that could underpin the rally for US Index higher levels ahead.

The rest is to see if the data wasn't biased in some sort as doubts remain from the way the CPI report was conducted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reopened after a 1.5 month closure which clouded the inflation picture and data collection.

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Minimal US Rate in 2026 – Change in Cut pricing since the FOMC (More cuts priced). Source: FedWatch Tool (CME)

The ongoing rally is a strong one and with fair reasons.

Stocks rallying to all-time highs were helped by more Rate cut expectations. These expectations were halted due to inflation concerns.

But with this report essentially allowing the Fed to maneuver further with the help of lower inflation, the path higher can start again.

It will be key to see if the bullish sentiment holds towards the Golden Week and yearly close to conclude yet another bullish Yearly candle for US Stock Markets.

And also if new all-time highs can be reached.

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Dow Jones Yearly Chart Since 1900 (log scale) – December 2025. Source: TradingView

Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500.

Read More:

• US CPI Misses Sharply at 2.7% (3.1% exp); BoE Cuts Rates to 3.75% as ECB Holds at 2% – Market Reactions
• WTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?
• BoJ preview: Interest rate hike baked in, what’s next for the JPY (further appreciation)?

Magnificent 7 are Shining Bright, a broadly green picture

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Current picture for the Stock Market (11:13 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 18, 2025

Except for the Energy sector, the entire Market is rallying, dragged higher by its Mag 7 Leaders – Best performers of the session.

Dow Jones 2H Chart – Erases its past day correction

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Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

DJIA bulls have come back strong after the encouraging CPI report to break above the Correction channel.

The buying is now stalling at slightly overbought RSI levels so there will be two things to watch around here (Session highs 48,444)

• Whether Bulls manage to get further momentum to pull prices above the 48,500 mark – Bullish continuation
• Or a pullback selling comes in
  • if it stalls at a retest of the Channel (+ 2H 50-period MA around 48,250)
  • if the retracement comes all the way back to 48,000, a rangebound picture will be expected

Dow Jones technical levels of interest (unchanged from yesterday)

Resistance Levels

• All-time High resistance between 48,700 to 48,886
• Session highs 48,444
• November ATH 48,300 to 48,500, acting as resistance (testing)
• 50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)

Support Levels

• Psychological Pivot at 48,000
• Pre-NFP 47,500 to 47,650 (recent lows)
• Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200
• August highs and November Lows 45,715
• 45,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)

Nasdaq 2H Chart – Leading its peers yet again

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Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Tech-Heavy Index took the reigns of this session, brought back on the battlefield by its 7 Generals.

Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) are posting their best performances in a while and dragging the other tech stocks with them.

Tesla (TSLA) is on track to break new all-time highs in Case you missed it.

Overall, there is still some road to cover for bulls, as the index trades 4% away from its 26,182 Record.

But having broken its descending channel, things are looking better.

Breaching the 25,000 to 25,250 Pivot will be essential if bulls want to retake the Momentum – For now looking Neutral (from bearish).

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 25,227 daily highs to break for a bull breakout
• Mini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 pts
• intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
• Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)

Support Levels

• 25,050 Channel retest and 2H 50 MA
• 24,500 Main support
• October and November lows just below 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

An interesting Chart for Santa Rally believers!

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S&P 500 Performance after December 15 – Source: X, posted by Ryan Detrick

S&P 500 2H Chart – Coming back into its range

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S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The S&P makes a comeback right into its 6,800 to 6,900 Range after faking out below the consolidation yesterday

After a fakeout, one thing to remember is to keep a close eye on the mid-range level (around 6,850) to spot if bulls fully retake their lost advantage.

• Rejecting the middle could point to higher odds of another breakdown.
• Breaking above confirms the return of bulls.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Range High Resistance 6,880 to 6,900
• 6,930 (current All Time-Highs)
• Weekly highs 6,896
• Mid Range 6,850
• ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930

Support Levels

• 6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lows
• Mini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)
• Session lows 6,750
• Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 50
• 6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)
• 6,400 psychological support

Safe Trades!

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