A Confusing CPI Session – North American session Market Wrap for December 18

[Ben Graham]

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 18

Market flows took a strongly positive tone following a CPI report that delivered a massive miss—2.7% vs. 3.1% expected.

However, the initial euphoria stalled as economists dove into the details, uncovering significant adjustments by the BLS that cast doubt on the data's validity.

The doubts triggered a pump-and-dump looking action across asset classes.

Gold briefly breached its record highs before correcting sharply, and stocks followed a similar trajectory: a wonderful open erased by mean-reverting flows around the mid-session bell.

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Nasdaq 15M Chart – Chaotic action! – December 18, 2025. Source: TradingView

Despite the whiplash, most assets managed a bounce in the late afternoon, though the overall mood remains confused. The Magnificent 7 saved the day, driving the Nasdaq back above the 25,000 handle to close approximately 1.20% higher.

In other news, Donald Trump’s Media & Technology Group (DJT) announced a strategic pivot, securing a major deal with TAE Technologies.

The partnership aims to leverage Nuclear Fusion to combat the soaring energy costs of running AI models.

The move sent DJT stock up 44% on the session.

The US President also delivered a gift to the public, declaring December 24th and 26th as official federal holidays—good news for Americans heading into the festive season.

Apart from this, there has been two major Central Bank rate decisions: the Bank of England cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75% in a Hawkish Cut, and the ECB held their rates at 2%.

Traders are still not done with the session as the evening reserves a Huge Bank of Japan Rate Decision where a Hike is heavily expected.

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Market Close Heatmap (16:00 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 18, 2025

Read More:

• USD Stabilizes on CPI Doubts: USD/JPY Ahead of BoJ Decision and FX Overview
• NVDA and Tech Stocks rebound again after CPI miss – US Index Outlook
• WTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?

Cross-Assets Daily Performance

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Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Flows couldn't be more volatile today.

The action whipsawed across all asset-classes as the day unrolled – The Nasdaq is the winner out of all the confusion.

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

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Currency Performance, December 18 – Source: OANDA Labs

Chaotic and low range action across all currencies in today's FX action.

Things will surely get interesting with tonight's Bank of Japan event.

A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions

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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

The evening session wraps up soon with National CPI figures from Japan releasing promptly.

Market expectations are for the National CPI YoY to remain steady at 3%. This inflation report tends to move markets less than the Tokyo CPI FYI.

But the most important event of the Evening largely remains the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision.

The BoJ is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point hike, raising the benchmark rate to 0.75%—its highest level in nearly 30 years. Communications from the BoJ will be closely tracked in the current doubts about the Central Banks' ability to show strength against a very stimulatory Government.

Tomorrow's session (Friday, December 19) will also present an intense finale to an already busy week as year flows can be expected to strongly calm down for the following weeks.

The 02:00 A.M. European stretch drops high-impact Retail Sales data for the UK, with the market looking for a rebound to 0.4% MoM following a previous contraction.

The North American session 8:30 A.M. ET starts with Canadian Retail Sales. The market is bracing for a flat 0% MoM reading for October.

Finally, the 10:00 A.M. stretch brings the US into the spotlight with Existing Home Sales and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures.

Traders will focus on Inflation Expectations, currently penciled in at 4.1% for the 1-year outlook, to see if consumer sentiment finally aligns with the Fed's cooling goals.

Safe Trades!

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