Over 60% of critical minerals demand met through global trade: IEF

[Ben Graham]

More than 60% of global critical mineral demands is met through international trade, underscoring the deep structural interdependence between producing and consuming economies as the deployment of clean energy accelerates, according to the International Energy Forum (IEF).

This level of reliance on international trade, the group said, makes the world’s supply chains highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, export controls, and refining bottlenecks, as minerals become the backbone of electrification, digital infrastructure and advanced manufacturing.

In its latest report titled A Critical Minerals Enabled Energy Future, the IEF highlights the mounting supply-side vulnerabilities as demand for the main energy transition minerals rises sharply through 2040. In particular, the copper and nickel markets may face material shortfalls by the mid-2030s, it said, while lithium supply remains concentrated in just a handful of countries.

Credit: IEF

At the same time, government responses are accelerating just as quickly. According to IEF estimates, the number of critical mineral policies issued since 2020 nearly doubled the combined total of the previous two decades, with countries increasingly turning to strategic planning, export controls and domestic processing mandates to shield supply chains.

Market outlook: electrification driving growth

The IEF report shows global demand for the five key minerals (copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements) rising from 28 million tonnes in 2021 to nearly 41 million by 2040, highlighting the growing dependence of clean energy technologies on mineral-intensive supply chains.

Within clean energy applications, copper remains the single largest contributor, more than doubling to more than 12 million tonnes, while lithium and nickel record the fastest growth rates, expanding more than tenfold due to battery manufacturing and energy-storage systems. Rare earth elements and cobalt show steadier but still significant increases as electrification efforts advance.

Credit: IEF

Electric vehicles will continue to be one of the biggest demand catalysts, given they use four times more copper than their internal-combustion counterparts, the IEF predicts. Copper consumption from EVs alone is projected to surge from 200,000 tonnes in 2020 to 3.4 million tonnes by 2035, a 14% average annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035. Meanwhile, the proliferation of AI, data centers, and semiconductor-heavy industries is intensifying competition between sectors for the same minerals.

Geographical concentration compounds the challenge: Indonesia accounts for more than half of global nickel supply, the Democratic Republic of the Congo produces roughly 70% of cobalt, and China controls more than 90% of rare earth refining capacity. Lithium mining remains dominated by Australia, Chile and China, which together accounted for more than three-quarters of global production in 2022.

Policy landscape: export controls, strategic planning

IEF notes that more than 600 policies worldwide now target critical mineral supply chains, revealing both geographic clustering and rapidly shifting priorities. Strategic planning remains the most common theme, but international trade measures and export controls are rising sharply, in some cases surpassing sustainability-focused regulations.

Credit: IEF

OECD members such as the US, Canada and Australia are rolling out incentives for exploration, refining and recycling, while major producers including Indonesia, Chile and Peru are issuing policies geared toward upstream investment and in-country value addition. The US has also expanded efforts to recover minerals from mine waste and legacy sites as a lower-friction alternative to new permitting.

Despite this acceleration, the report warns that market-distorting interventions may exacerbate volatility unless accompanied by cross-border coordination. The IEF argues that transparent markets, shared data, and structured producer-consumer dialogue — similar to mechanisms used in oil markets — will be critical to sustaining investment and reducing uncertainty in mineral markets where both mining and refining capacity remain concentrated.