Fundstrat Predicts Ethereum Drop To $1,800 In H1 2026

[Ben Graham]

A screenshot attributed to Fundstrat Research is stirring debate over whether Tom Lee’s firm is projecting a sharp first-half 2026 correction in crypto markets—despite Lee’s recent public bullishness on Ethereum.

Wu Blockchain shared the image via X, describing it as an internal client note titled “2026 Crypto Outlook: Near-Term Headwinds, Second-Half Upside,” timestamped Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025 at 7:34 p.m. ET.

Fundstrat’s Bearish Call Vs. Tom Lee’s Bull Case

The document is credited to Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, and includes a base-case scenario calling for a “meaningful drawdown in 1H 2026,” with target ranges of bitcoin at $60,000–$65,000, ether at $1,800–$2,000, and solana at $50–$75. The note adds that those levels would represent “attractive opportunities into year-end,” and that if the view is wrong, the preference is still to “play defense” until strength is confirmed.

The ETH range is what set the market chatter off. Ether is trading around the $3,000 area, making $1,800 a material downside scenario if taken at face value.

The controversy, such as it is, comes from the proximity to Lee’s own messaging. At Binance Blockchain Week, Lee said ethereum at roughly $3,000 looked “severely undervalued,” a stance that reads very differently than a research framework explicitly mapping a potential move to the high-$1,000s. Over the past few weeks, Lee even publicly shared his predictions that ETH could reach $20,000 next year and $62,000 over the next several years.

Farrell responded directly on X on Dec. 20, arguing the framing of “internal conflict” misunderstands how Fundstrat operates. The firm, he said, houses several analysts with independent processes, each designed for different client objectives and time horizons.

Lee’s work, Farrell wrote, is aimed at large institutions that might allocate 1%–5% to BTC and ETH and is structured around longer-term macro and “secular” trends. Farrell’s research, by contrast, is positioned for investors with heavier crypto exposure—he referenced portfolios with ~20%+ allocations—where active risk management and rebalancing matter more than maintaining a single long-duration thesis through volatility.

That distinction is central to interpreting the leaked-style targets. Farrell’s public explanation wasn’t “we are bearish,” but rather “we are cautious in the near term.” He said markets appear priced for “near-perfection” while risks remain elevated—citing government shutdown dynamics, trade volatility, uncertainty around AI capex, and a Federal Reserve chair transition, alongside tight high-yield spreads and low cross-asset volatility.

He also highlighted mixed flow conditions. In Farrell’s telling, long-term ETF demand could improve as wirehouses onboard, but near-term pressures persist from “OG selling,” miners, fund redemptions, and even the possibility of an MSCI MicroStrategy delisting—an item that stood out because it suggests the risk lens extends beyond spot crypto into the crypto-equity complex that has become a key liquidity and sentiment barometer.

Farrell’s stated base case: “an early-year bounce followed by another 1H drawdown, creating a more attractive opportunity into year-end.If I’m wrong, I’d rather wait for confirmation (trend breaks, flows, momentum, or a clear catalyst). Crypto is reflexive, and for my objective, patience matters in no-man’s land.”

The thread ends on a point many readers missed in the initial screenshot-driven outrage cycle: Farrell still expects BTC and ETH to “challenge new ATHs by year-end,” describing a shorter, shallower bear that could compress the traditional four-year cycle narrative. “For those who tuned into the outlook: I still expect BTC and ETH to challenge new ATHs by year-end, effectively ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter, shallower bear,” he wrote via X.

At press time, Ethereum traded at $3,043.