The November "CPI Energy Shock" – Prices Up 4.2% and Consumer Pressure

[Igor Pereira]

The market celebrates "soft" inflation data in the core, a silent monster woke up again. November 2025 data show that energy inflation in the US has not only stopped falling, but is accelerating at the fastest pace since February 2023.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

Below we dissect the numbers that may complicate the lives of the Federal Reserve and the American consumer.

The data from the CPI of Energy show a worrying leap. Energy inflation has risen +4.2% in the annual comparison (YoY) in November.

• Trend: This is the second consecutive acceleration. We left +2.8% in September for the current 4.2%.

• The Guilty: The raise is not uniform. It is driven by critical sectors for heating and transport:

  • Fuel Oil (Fuel Oil): Fired. +11.3%.

  • Enchanted Gas (Utility Gas): He's up. +9.1 %.

  • Electricity: Increased +6.9 %.

To understand the pain of the consumer, we need to look at the accumulated. The average energy price index has reached 284.2 points, the highest level since May 2024.

• The Reality: Energy prices are now +58% above 2020 pre-pandemic levels .

• The Impact: Although we are still 14% below the historic peak of June 2022, this new increase corrodes families' available income just at the entry of winter into the northern hemisphere.

Here's the key point for Trader Macro:

• Headline: Full inflation (CPI) may seem "hot" because of energy.

• Core: The Fed focuses on the core (excluding food and energy), which fell to 2.6% , the lowest level since 2021.

• The Danger: If energy continues to rise at this rate (+4.2%), it will eventually contaminate transport costs and services, forcing the Fed to rethink the speed of interest cuts. For now, the market bets that the Fed will look at the falling core, but energy is a tail risk that cannot be ignored.

Energy inflation is building pressure again.

1. Short Term: This is high for energy commodities (oil, natural gas) and industry actions (XLE).

2. Consumer: It is bassist for discretionary retail (XLY), as the average American will have less money to spend on superfluous if the electricity and gas bill is rising 7-9%.

Monitor the price of oil. If he breaks resistance, the Fed's narrative of "immaculate deflation" will be at risk.

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