Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Futures Four-Year Cycle Is Being Replaced by a “10-Year Grind”

Ben Graham · 2 horas atrás

For more than a decade, Bitcoin Futures and crypto investors have leaned on the four-year halving cycle as gospel. Price explodes, sentiment overheats, the market crashes, and the clock resets.

But as Bitcoin BTC $89,597.92 2.55% Bitcoin BTC Price $89,597.92 2.55% /24h Volume in 24h $29.06B Price 7d Learn more inches deeper into the institutional bloodstream, many Wall Street analysts are predicting that the framework is breaking.

That debate took center stage this week on CNBC’s Crypto World, where Matt Hougan of Bitwise and Sebastian Bea of Reserve One laid out “the new four-year cycle.”

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What Is The New Four Year Cycle For Bitcoin Futures?

Hougan’s argument is simple. The forces driving Bitcoin today are structurally larger than miner supply shocks. Spot ETFs, regulatory clarity, stablecoins, and tokenization are pulling Bitcoin into a slower, steadier market regime.

“I think the four-year cycle is less important now than it was in the past,” said Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise.

“We’re not in a four-year cycle anymore. We’re in a 10-year grind upward with strong returns and lower volatility.”

Real Vision CEO @RaoulGMI says the four year cycle is now a five year cycle, and the big liquidity burst is yet to come pic.twitter.com/mI7sLmkPti

— Solana (@solana) December 11, 2025

That framing helps explain why Bitcoin can be down roughly 30% from its October highs near $125,000 without collapsing. According to CoinGecko, BTC volatility over the past year has actually dropped below that of Nvidia, which, honestly speaking, is quite nuts.

The cycles for all assets are increasingly more volatile.

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Crypto Fear and Greed Chart

All time 1y 1m 1w 24h

Bea pushed back on the idea that cycles are gone entirely, arguing that humans still trade markets, yet humans are predictably irrational.

“This cycle hasn’t been that great,” said Sebastian Bea, CIO of Reserve One.

“If we’re seeing 2x returns instead of 10x, that alone tells you the structure has changed.”

Hougan added that major wirehouses only approved Bitcoin ETFs months after launch, and the average institutional allocation takes eight quarterly meetings to finalize. Translation: the slow money is just getting started.

Data Check: Liquidity, Not Politics, Is Driving BTC

The CNBC panel was clear that Bitcoin’s recent stagnation has less to do with Washington and more to do with liquidity. Glassnode metrics indicate long-term holders remain largely intact despite recent drawdowns.

“Bitcoin is a macro asset,” said Sebastian Bea.

“What matters right now is liquidity, not headlines from the Hill.”

If this really is a staircase up with fewer elevator crashes, which TBH it feels like, the four-year cycle may not be dead. It may just be drowned out by something bigger and slower, and far more institutional. Exponential gains might be found away from Bitcoin in the wider crypto market.

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Key Takeaways

For more than a decade, Bitcoin Futures and crypto investors have leaned on the four-year halving cycle as gospel. All that is dead.
Bea pushed back on the idea that cycles are gone entirely, arguing that humans still trade markets, yet humans are predictably irrational.

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