XRP Price May Be Bearish Below $2, But On-Chain Data Tells A Different Story

[Ben Graham]

XRP’s recent price action in recent weeks has been under selling pressure, with the cryptocurrency struggling to reclaim the psychologically important $2 level. From a technical standpoint, the structure still leans bearish and lacks strong upside momentum. 

However, beneath this subdued price behavior, activity on the XRP Ledger points to a more complex context that conflicts with what is visible on price charts alone.

XRP Price Weakness Meets Notable Network Activity

XRP’s price has been trading below $2 over the past few weeks, and this level has repeatedly acted as resistance during recovery attempts. Momentum indicators like the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages are showing hesitation instead of sustained buying pressure, despite the inflow streak of Spot XRP ETFs. This has left the price of XRP vulnerable to extended consolidation or further downside as long as buyers fail to regain higher technical ground. 

Bitcoin and the wider crypto market conditions have not helped. Capital rotation away from altcoins has limited upside follow-through, leaving XRP and many other large-market-cap cryptocurrencies exposed to bearish moves.

However, on-chain data from the XRP Ledger tells a very different story. Network metrics show a steady streak of high activity, with daily transaction counts recently approaching 900,000 payments per day, making it one of the busiest stretches in months. This increase has not been smooth or gradual either, as data shows clusters of larger-value transfers occurring alongside the rise in overall volume. 

This data is from the XRPL tracker website XRPScan, which shows that the daily transaction numbers have been consistently above 900,000 throughout December, with some daily spikes above 1 million transactions. The pattern suggests that the activity extends more than what you would expect for the current bearish momentum, considering that periods of high retail activity like this are expected to contribute to bullish momentum.

Price And On-Chain Divergence Leaves XRP At A Crossroads

The growing gap between XRP’s bearish price structure and strengthening on-chain activity raises questions about how the market is currently valuing network usage. 

A closer look at payment volume between accounts shows that hundreds of millions of XRP are being transferred daily, with several days seeing flows exceeding one billion XRP. In dollar terms, this represents billions worth of value moving across the ledger each day, despite the lack of upward momentum in price.

Interestingly, the number of active users (source tag + destination tag) has also been hovering in the hundreds of thousands, which is far more than you would expect for a cryptocurrency struggling with price action. An explanation is that XRP traders are only actively trading in the short term. 

This divergence puts focus on whether the current on-chain strength represents early positioning ahead of deeper adoption or institutional developments tied to Ripple, or whether it will continue to be disconnected from near-term demand in the open market.