Bitcoin ‘$150K by 2026’ Bet Gets Just 26% Odds on Polymarket

[Ben Graham]

Bettors on a prediction market, Polymarket, currently give Bitcoin only a 26% chance of trading above $150,000 at any point in 2026. Other related markets are more optimistic on lower milestones, with odds near 80% that Bitcoin touches $100,000 before 2027.

As we know, prediction markets are going mainstream just as everyone fights over what the next Bitcoin cycle will look like.

(source – Polymarket)

What Do Polymarket Bettors Really Say About Bitcoin Next?

A prediction market is a betting exchange for real-world events. Instead of betting on a sports game, you buy “yes” or “no” shares on outcomes such as “Bitcoin hits $150K in 2026.” The price of each share reflects the crowd’s estimated probability, so a 26-cent “yes” share equals 26% odds.

Polymarket recently reopened to US users in a regulated way after it acquired QCEX and secured a green light from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This makes Polymarket sit closer to the traditional financial system, not just a niche of crypto gamblers anymore. At the same time, rivals like Kalshi and Truth Predict, a Donald Trump-linked Truth Social platform, push their own event markets

We’re thrilled to share that we've received CFTC approval for intermediation, paving the way for seamless access to polymarkets through registered brokers & financial institutions.

Coming soon to a trading platform near you. pic.twitter.com/2m72ZwCdtA

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 25, 2025

So, what are users actually saying? They see a strong chance of higher prices, but they treat mega-bull calls like $150K Bitcoin in 2026 as far from guaranteed.

One related market prices about 80% odds for Bitcoin to touch $100K before 2027, but the jump from $100K to $150K is where confidence drops.

(source – Polymarket)

For us, this gives a sanity check against wild price targets on social media. Instead of only listening to loud influencers, you can see how people who risk real money price different Bitcoin scenarios.

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What Does the Chance of $150K Bitcoin Mean for Us?

A 21% probability does not mean “Bitcoin won’t go up.” It means the crowd thinks there is about a one-in-five shot of that specific outcome, touching $150K in 2026, which is already a huge move from current levels. We basically pack sunscreen if there’s a 70% chance of sun, but you don’t ignore an announced 26% chance of storms.

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This matters for us because it pushes us to plan for multiple outcomes, not just the dream scenario. Some analysts call Bitcoin the “king of the decade” and expect it to outperform gold and silver over time, as discussed in our analysis of  Bitcoin. But Polymarket’s pricing tells you that even committed crypto traders treat aggressive targets with caution.

It also slots into the bigger 2026 playbook. Our broader 2026 crypto prediction explores how interest rates, ETF flows, and stablecoins might push or cap Bitcoin’s upside. When you combine that macro picture with prediction market odds, you get a more grounded expectation range instead of one magic number.

Another point is that prediction markets now show up in mainstream tools like Google and Yahoo Finance. This means more casual investors will start treating these odds like another data point, right next to price charts and ETF flows.

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How Should You Use Prediction Market Odds Without Getting Wrecked?

First, treat Polymarket like a strong weather forecast for prices, not a promise. Bettors who buy these contracts can be wrong, overconfident, or short-term focused. A 26% chance can jump to 40% after a big ETF inflow, a rate cut, or a surprise regulatory win.

Second, never invest based only on one market’s odds. Instead, combine them with long-term research, halving-cycle history, and your own risk tolerance.

Third, remember position sizing. High-upside scenarios like $150K Bitcoin are by nature high risk. If you choose to speculate, treat it like a small side bet, not rent money or emergency savings. That way, a miss hurts your ego, not your ability to pay bills.

As prediction markets mature and regulators stay involved, their odds will likely become a standard part of Bitcoin discussions. Use them as one more flashlight in the dark, not the only one, and you will navigate the next cycle with more confidence and less stress.

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